Preview
Right, so we've got TSV Hartberg hosting Wolfsberger AC on 24 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Let's start with the home side. Hartberg have been busy of late โ they won 4-3 against Austria Lustenau at home just 13 days ago, drew 3-3 with Lask Linz on the same ground a month back, and before that they were scoring freely. In their last five games they've scored 14 and conceded 11, which is 2.8 a game on the attack. They've scored in every single one of those five โ not a single blank. And here's the bit that really catches the eye: all five of those games went over 2.5 goals. Every. Single. One.
Now look at the visitors. Wolfsberger AC have lost their last two games โ 0-2 at home to WSG Wattens and 0-3 at SCR Altach โ and in those two they've scored nothing and conceded five. Over their last five, they've managed just 3 goals and conceded 13. That's 0.6 a game on the attack. They've failed to score in three of those five. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 3 draws, 12 losses โ 0.9 points per game. Hartberg at home over 20 games? 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses โ 1.45 points per game. That's a gap you can see from the pub window.
The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings โ just one within the last 12 months, and that was at Wolfsberger's ground back in November 2025, where Hartberg won 2-1. The older meetings go back further and are more mixed, but the recent one tells you who's on top.
The xG numbers back it up too. Hartberg are averaging 1.56 xG for per game over their last seven games with data, while Wolfsberger are at 0.88. On the defensive side, Hartberg's xG against is 1.91 per game, but Wolfsberger's is 2.38 โ meaning the visitors are being exposed at a higher rate.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Hartberg did lose 1-3 at Rapid Vienna just eight days ago, and their defence has been a bit leaky โ 2.2 conceded per game in the last five. Wolfsberger did pick up a 2-1 friendly win over Voitsberg three weeks ago, so they're not entirely without a spark. And the fact that Hartberg's last game was a loss means they're not rolling in.
But when you stack it all up โ the home record, the away record, the form gap, the head-to-head, the xG โ it all points the same way. Hartberg are the stronger side, they're at home, and Wolfsberger are struggling to score.
Key Points:
- TSV Hartberg have scored in all 5 of their last 5 games and gone over 2.5 in all 5
- Wolfsberger AC have lost their last 2, scoring 0 and conceding 5
- Hartberg's home record (8W 5D 7L) dwarfs Wolfsberger's away record (5W 3D 12L)
- The only recent head-to-head meeting saw Hartberg win 2-1
- Hartberg's xG for (1.56 per game) is well ahead of Wolfsberger's (0.88 per game)
My pick: TSV Hartberg home win at 2.2.
