Twente vs Excelsior Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eredivisie clash. Twente are sitting pretty in 6th, while Excelsior are down in 14th and looking over their shoulder. On paper, it's a home banker, but football's never that simple, is it? Let's dig into the numbers and see what's what.

First up, Twente's form. Blimey, they're on a proper run. Unbeaten in their last ten, with six wins and four draws. That's the kind of form that gets you dreaming of Europe. They're solid at the back, conceding just eight goals in those ten games, and they've kept four clean sheets. At home, they're even meaner, letting in a paltry 0.25 goals per game in their last four at their gaff. Recent results tell the story: a 2-0 win over Heracles, a 2-1 cup win at Utrecht, and a very handy 1-1 draw away at Feyenoord. They're getting results against the big boys and swatting aside the smaller fry.

Excelsior, on the other hand, are a bit all over the shop. Three wins, four draws, three losses in their last ten. They pulled off a cracking 2-1 win at Ajax back in November, which shows they've got a bit of fight in them, but they followed that up by losing at home to Groningen and getting smashed 5-1 by PSV. Away from home, they're conceding nearly two goals a game on average. They did manage a decent 1-1 draw at AZ Alkmaar just the other day, but they only had three days' rest after that, while Twente have had a full six days to prepare. That's a big advantage.

Now, the head-to-head is a funny one. Dead level historically, three wins apiece and three draws. More importantly for this one, Excelsior nicked a 1-0 win when they met back in August. You can bet your bottom dollar Twente haven't forgotten that and will be well up for a bit of payback on their own patch.

When you look at the stats, Twente dominate. They average over 21 shots a game to Excelsior's 13, they have more of the ball, and they're more accurate with their passing. Excelsior do tend to give away a few more fouls, which could be a problem if Twente start turning the screw.

The bookies have Twente at a short 1.40 to win. Sometimes those odds look too skinny, but here I think they're about right, maybe even a touch of value. Twente are the form side, they're strong at home, and they've got a point to prove. Excelsior's defence on the road looks like it could be there for the taking.

Key Points:

Twente are unbeaten in 10 matches (W6 D4).

At home, Twente have a 75% win rate and concede just 0.25 goals per game recently.

Excelsior have won just 20% of their recent away games, conceding 1.80 goals per match.

Excelsior won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season, adding a revenge angle.

• Twente have had 6 days rest compared to Excelsior's 3.

All things considered, this sets up nicely for the hosts. Twente's momentum, home advantage, and superior quality should see them through. I'm backing the home win to continue their excellent run.