Twente vs Groningen Prediction

Right then, Sunday morning football in the Eredivisie and we've got Twente hosting Groningen. If you're looking for a solid start to your acca, you might've found your banker here, mate.

Twente are absolutely flying at the moment – unbeaten in their last ten games, would you believe it? That's four wins and six draws, including a proper pasting of Heerenveen last weekend, 5-0 no less. They've been tighter than a drum at the back too, especially on their own patch, conceding just one goal in their last three home matches. That's the kind of form that wins you points, and they're sitting pretty in seventh with 35 on the board.

Now look at Groningen. Poor sods have lost four of their last five competitive matches, including a 2-1 defeat at home to Fortuna Sittard and another 2-1 loss to Utrecht. They're down in ninth, level on points with Heerenveen but with a goal difference that's gone walkabout. Scoring just nine goals in their last ten tells you everything about their struggles in front of goal, and that finishing delta of -0.52 shows they're not even creating enough chances to matter.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Groningen fans. Twente have never lost to them in nine attempts – four wins and five draws. Even more telling, Twente have won all four home meetings between these two. The last time they met in November it finished 1-1, but Twente were away that day. At home, Twente have Groningen's number.

The bookies have Twente at 1.53, which is short but understandable given the gulf in form. Groningen are 6.00 which is about right for a team that's forgotten where the net is. The draw at 3.90 might tempt some given the five draws in nine meetings, but Twente's current momentum and that 5-0 thrashing of Heerenveen suggests they'll have too much quality for a side that's lost four of five.

Key Points:

• Twente are unbeaten in 10 games (W4 D6) and just thrashed Heerenveen 5-0 at home

• Groningen have lost 4 of their last 5 competitive matches (vs Utrecht, PSV, Sparta, Fortuna)

• Twente have never lost to Groningen (W4 D5) and boast a 100% home record in this fixture

• Twente have conceded just 0.33 goals per game at home recently, while Groningen average just 0.9 goals scored per game

• Groningen's finishing delta of -0.52 indicates significant attacking struggles

Summary: Twente are in a different league form-wise and have the historical edge at home. Back the home win at 1.53 – it won't make you rich, but it should keep your money safe.