U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Tijuana Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash between Pumas and Tijuana. Both sides are having a bit of a mixed season, but there's value to be had here if you know where to look.

Pumas are sitting 13th in the table with 15 points from 15 games - not exactly setting the world alight, are they? Their recent form shows three wins, four draws, and three losses from their last ten, but they've gone three games without a win now. They drew 1-1 with Leon, lost 0-1 to Atletico San Luis, and drew 1-1 with Monterrey. The thing that catches my eye is their defensive record - only one clean sheet in ten games! They're conceding 1.40 goals per game on average, and both teams have scored in 80% of their recent matches. That's a proper pattern, that is.

Tijuana are doing a bit better in 8th place with 21 points, but their away form is absolutely shocking. Zero wins in their last five away games! They got stuffed 0-2 by Tigres, drew 0-0 with Toluca, and lost 3-4 to bottom-dwellers Puebla. When they're on the road, they're only scoring 1.20 goals per game but letting in 2.40! That's like leaving the back door wide open, mate.

Here's the interesting bit though - these two teams have history. Pumas are unbeaten at home against Tijuana (2 wins, 2 draws), and their last meeting was a right old barnstormer - 2-4! Both teams have scored in five of their nine head-to-head matches.

Looking at the stats, Pumas are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded at home, while Tijuana are scoring 1.80 overall but shipping goals for fun away from home. Both teams have been pretty leaky defensively, and Pumas especially seem to have forgotten how to keep a clean sheet.

The goal expectancies are pointing towards 1.87 for Pumas and 1.27 for Tijuana, which suggests we could see a few goals in this one. Given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and the fact that Pumas have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games, I'm leaning towards both teams finding the net.

The odds for both teams to score are sitting at 1.62, which looks decent value to me. Pumas are at home where they've historically done well against Tijuana, but their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot. Tijuana might be rubbish away, but they can still score goals.

Key Points:

• Pumas have only 1 clean sheet in 10 games (10% rate)

• Tijuana have 0 wins in last 5 away games

• Both teams scored in 80% of Pumas' recent matches

• Pumas unbeaten at home vs Tijuana (2W, 2D)

• Last H2H ended 2-4 with both teams scoring

• Tijuana concede 2.40 goals per game away from home

The way I see it, both teams are likely to score here. Pumas' defence is all over the place, and even though Tijuana are poor travelers, they still manage to find the net. At 1.62, that's the sort of value I like to see.