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Right, so we've got U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home to Cruz Azul, and if I'm being honest, the wider numbers are pointing one way but the last couple of games have muddled the picture a bit.
Cruz Azul are the side in better form on the broader numbers. Over their last 10 games they've managed 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, scoring 1.5 a game. Pumas, by contrast, have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses in that same stretch, managing just 0.8 a game. And when you look at the venue records — Cruz Azul on the road over 20 games have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses at 1.8 points per game, while Pumas at home sit on 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses at 1.65. The most recent meeting at Pumas's ground was a 1–2 loss for the hosts back on 25 May, and the one before that was a 2–2 draw on 15 March. Pumas haven't won this fixture at home in the recent meetings.
Pumas have been in a bit of a scrap of late. Three losses in their last five, including a 0–3 at Guadalajara Chivas on 14 September and a 0–2 at Club Tijuana on 29 August, and they failed to score in two of those five. Their xG numbers over the last four games with data show them creating 0.69 a game but actually scoring just 1 goal. That's a team struggling to put the ball in the net.
Now, the counter-argument. Cruz Azul lost 0–1 at Monterrey on 20 September and 0–2 at Inter Miami on 17 September in their last two away games. That's two straight blank sheets on the road, and it does raise a question. Pumas did pick up a 3–1 win at home against Leon on 11 September, and their home record over 20 games includes 6 clean sheets, compared to Cruz Azul's 2 away. So Pumas at home can shut a team down, and if they find that gear, Cruz Azul's recent away struggles could come back to bite them.
The head-to-head over the last 12 months is 1 win for Cruz Azul, 1 win for Pumas and 2 draws. It's been tight. The older meetings go back 9 years and Cruz Azul have won 14 of 29 overall, but that's historical and doesn't tell us much about what's happening right now.
Key Points:
- Cruz Azul's last 10 (4W 1D 5L) clearly outperforms Pumas's (1W 4D 5L)
- Cruz Azul won the most recent meeting at Pumas's ground (1–2)
- Pumas lost 3 of their last 5 and failed to score in two of those
- Cruz Azul lost both of their last two away games without scoring
- Pumas home record: 9W 6D 5L over 20 games with 6 clean sheets
The available prices on this one don't give me a clear edge. The market is pricing Cruz Azul as favourites at 2.1, and while the numbers do back that up, the two straight away losses and Pumas's home record keep me from feeling confident enough to put money down. No Bet.