UCD vs Longford Town Prediction

Right, so UCD are at home here and the numbers at their ground are solid. Twenty home games in the First Division and they've won 10, drawn 2 and lost 8, scoring 1.9 a game and conceding 1.5. That's a side that puts the ball in the back of the net at home and keeps a decent shape in front of the crowd. The only recent meeting at UCD's ground, back in May, was a 2–0 win for the hosts, and that's the only meeting at this venue in the last 12 months.

Now flip it around. Longford Town on the road: 20 away games, 5 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses. They score 1.5 a game away and concede 1.9. That's a side that struggles to find the net on the road and leaks more than it puts away. Their last five matches show 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at 1.4 points per game, and 3 of those 5 games finished under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five also saw at least one team fail to score.

But here's the thing, and I'll be honest with you: UCD's last five games are not pretty. One win, two draws, two losses. They lost 1–3 to Bray Wanderers at home and got smashed 1–5 at Cork City. Eleven goals conceded in five games. The defence is not what the 20-game home record suggests. That said, the 4–0 thrashing of Treaty United seven days ago shows the attack is alive, and UCD have scored in all five of their last five matches.

The head-to-head in the last 12 months is split. Longford Town won 2–1 at their own ground in July, UCD won 2–0 at home in May, and the March meeting at Longford's ground was a 0–0 draw. No side has dominated the recent meetings.

The market prices UCD's win at 1.72, which the bookmakers read as roughly 58% chance. My own read, looking at the home record, the visitors' away record, and the recent form on both sides, puts UCD's chances a touch below that mark. The home numbers are strong, but the last five games have UCD conceding 2.2 a game, and Longford Town have been competitive on the road with 2 wins in their last 5. I can't get comfortable enough with the price to call it.

Key Points:

• UCD home record (20 games): 10W 2D 8L, 1.9 scored per game, 1.5 conceded per game

• Longford Town away record (20 games): 5W 7D 8L, 1.5 scored per game, 1.9 conceded per game

• UCD last 5: 1W 2D 2L, 9 scored, 11 conceded; both teams scored in 4 of 5

• Longford Town last 5: 2W 1D 2L, 6 scored, 7 conceded; under 2.5 in 3 of 5

• Recent H2H at UCD's ground: UCD won 2–0 (May 2026); the other two recent meetings were at Longford's ground

My call on this one is No Bet.