Preview
Value VinnyThere's a clear story in the numbers here, and it points one way. Borussia Dortmund arrive at Union Berlin's ground carrying four wins and a draw from their last five, scoring 2.4 goals per game while conceding just 1.2. Union Berlin, by contrast, have won just one of their last five, and that one came against SV Elversberg in a 1–0 home game on 10 October. The other four? A 0–7 defeat to Bayern on 18 September, a 0–4 loss to Leverkusen on 5 September, a 1–3 home defeat to Schalke on 11 September, and a 3–3 draw with Frankfurt on 29 August. That's 17 goals conceded in five games, 3.4 per game. The bookies have priced Dortmund's win at 1.73, implying 57.80%, but the football says the true number is higher than that.
The venue records sharpen the picture. Over their last 20 away games, Dortmund have won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, averaging 1.8 points per game and conceding 1.25 per outing. Union Berlin's home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses at 1.15 points per game, conceding 1.85 per game. The gap in points per game — 1.8 to 1.15 — is the kind of edge that doesn't need much embellishment. Dortmund also scored in all 10 of their last 10 games, while Union failed to score in 2 of 10. Dortmund's xG figures back it up: 2.21 per game for, 1.13 per game against, compared to Union's 1.76 for and 0.83 against.
The head-to-head at this venue adds weight. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 24 January 2026, and Dortmund won 3–0 at Union Berlin's ground. The older meetings at this venue — a 2–1 Union win and a 0–2 Dortmund win — are historical record and don't carry the same weight as that recent 0–3.
The counter-argument is Union Berlin's home draw record. Eight draws in 20 home games means they don't lose at home as often as you might expect, and their most recent home result was a win. Dortmund's latest game was also a 2–2 draw with Werder Bremen on 9 October, so they're not on a winning run. But one draw doesn't undo four wins in five, and the quality of those wins — 3–0 at Paderborn, 3–2 at Villarreal in the Champions League, 3–2 at Hoffenheim away — speaks to a team in genuine command. Union's 0–7 and 0–4 defeats say the opposite about their defensive resilience.
My read of the form, the venue records and the recent head-to-head puts Dortmund's probability closer to 63%. The market's 57.80% leaves a genuine edge at 1.73, and that's the kind of price you want to be on.
Key Points:
- Dortmund are unbeaten in their last five (4W 1D), scoring 2.4 per game and conceding 1.2
- Union Berlin have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 17 goals (3.4 per game)
- Dortmund's last 20 away games: 11W 3D 6L, 1.8 ppg; Union's last 20 home: 5W 8D 7L, 1.15 ppg
- The only recent H2H at this venue (24 January 2026) ended 0–3 to Dortmund
- Dortmund scored in all 10 of their last 10 games; Union failed to score in 2 of 10
Verdict: I'm backing the away win.