Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Union Berlin hosting Borussia Dortmund on 17 October, and I'm telling you, this one's gonna be a proper meat feast on the scoreboard. Let me lay it out for you.
Dortmund have been absolutely cooking. Four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 6. That's 2.4 goals a game going in and 1.2 coming out. In their last 10 across all grounds, they've won 7, drawn 2 and lost just 1, averaging 2.5 goals scored per game. Their away record over 20 games tells the same story: 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, scoring 1.8 per game and conceding 1.25. This is a team that's been putting the boot in.
Now look at Union Berlin. One win, one draw and three losses in their last five. They've scored 5 and conceded 17. That's 3.4 goals conceded per game, mates. Their home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses, conceding 1.85 per game. In their last 10, they've conceded 2.9 per game. The defence is leaking like a bucket with a hole in it.
And the head-to-head at this ground? In January, Dortmund came here and won 3–0. That's the only meeting within the last 12 months at Union Berlin's ground. The older meetings are historical, but they paint a picture of Dortmund dominating this fixture.
Now, the counter-argument. Union did pick up a 1–0 win over Elversberg on 10 October, and their home record does show 15 of 20 games going over 2.5. Dortmund's last game was a 2–2 draw with Werder Bremen, so they're not invincible. Union's home record has 8 draws out of 20, so a low-scoring draw is in the mix. And the H2H at this venue in January was a 3–0, which is over 2.5, but it was one game.
But here's the thing: both teams' last five games have gone over 2.5 four times each. Union's home record is 15 out of 20 over. Dortmund's away record is 12 out of 20 over. The H2H overall is 12 out of 16 over 2.5. The numbers keep pointing the same direction.
Key Points:
- Dortmund have scored 2.4 per game and conceded 1.2 in their last five; Union have conceded 3.4 per game
- Both teams' last five matches went over 2.5 goals four times each
- The only meeting within 12 months at Union Berlin's ground finished 0–3
- Union's home record over 20 games: 15 of 20 went over 2.5; Dortmund's away record: 12 of 20 over
- Dortmund's last 10: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.5 goals scored per game
My verdict: I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.52. The evidence is consistent, the scoring is flowing on both ends, and I can't see this being a tight, low-scoring affair. Braai's on, beer's cold, and we're watching the goals come.