Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceThe force is strong with Borussia Dortmund, and the numbers do not lie. Four wins and a draw in their last five matches, with not a single defeat, tells a story of a side in genuine command. They have scored 12 goals in those five games while conceding just six, and their away record over the last 20 games reads 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses — a 1.8 points-per-game that speaks of a team comfortable on the road. The xG figures back it up: 2.21 per game created, 1.13 per game conceded, across three recent matches. A team that scores at that rate and concedes at that rate is not a team you sit down and watch from the stands.
Union Berlin, by contrast, have lost three of their last five. Seventeen goals conceded in five games — 3.4 per match — is a wound that does not heal quickly. They scored just five in that span and failed to find the net in two of those five. Their home record over 20 games shows 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses, and while the draws suggest a stubbornness at home, the losses are telling. The 1–0 win over SV Elversberg on 10 October, just seven days before this fixture, was a bright spot, but it follows a run of three defeats that has left the defence leaking goals at an alarming rate.
The head-to-head at this ground is recent and unambiguous. On 24 January 2026, Borussia Dortmund came to Union Berlin's ground and won 3–0. That was the only meeting within the last 12 months. The older meetings — a 3–0 and a 6–0 at Dortmund's ground, a 2–1 for Union Berlin in 2024 — are historical record, not current form, and I will not dress them up as a trend. What matters is that the most recent meeting at this venue went to Dortmund, and they did so convincingly. The older games dilute the picture; the recent one sharpens it.
Now, the other side of the coin, for I must be fair. Union Berlin did win their last home game, and their home record carries 8 draws in 20 games, which means they can grind out a point even when the odds are stacked. Dortmund's most recent match was a 2–2 draw at home against Werder Bremen, and a draw is not a defeat, but it does show the form is not perfect. The xG data for Union Berlin's two recent home games shows 1.76 per game created and 0.83 per game conceded, which is not as bleak as the actual scores suggest. A team that just won at home is not a team to dismiss entirely. The wise one knows that the dark side of the form can surprise.
But the weight of evidence leans heavily one way. Dortmund's away form, their recent head-to-head at this ground, their scoring output and defensive solidity — all point to the visitors taking the points. The market price for Borussia Dortmund's win is 1.73, with the bookmaker-implied probability at 57.80%. My own reading of the form, the venue record and the head-to-head puts Dortmund's likelihood of winning at roughly 60%, a shade above the market's view. The gap is not enormous, but it is real, and it is earned by the numbers, not by hope.
Key Points:
- Borussia Dortmund are 4W 1D 0L in their last five, scoring 2.4 per game and conceding 1.2
- Union Berlin have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 3.4 goals per game
- The only recent head-to-head at Union Berlin's ground (24 Jan 2026) ended 0–3 to Dortmund
- Dortmund's away record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 points per game
- Union Berlin's home record: 5W 8D 7L in 20 games, 1.15 points per game
The wise path, the path the numbers walk, is to back Borussia Dortmund for the away win.