Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Union Berlin are at home and Borussia Dortmund are on the road, and if you've been following the Bundesliga, the writing on the wall is pretty clear.
Dortmund have been absolutely flying. Four wins and a draw in their last five, no defeats, and they've scored 12 goals in that stretch while only conceding six. Their last outing was a 2-2 draw at home to Werder Bremen, but before that they were winning 3-0 at Paderborn, 3-2 against Villarreal in the Champions League, and 3-2 on the road at Hoffenheim. That's a team scoring in every game and keeping it tight at the back.
Now look at Union Berlin. They've got one win in their last five – a 1-0 against Elversberg at home – but the other four? Three losses and a draw, with 17 goals conceded. They lost 0-7 away to Bayern, 0-4 away to Leverkusen, and 1-3 at home to Schalke. That's a team leaking goals like a sieve. Their home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses, and they're averaging 1.85 goals conceded per game.
The head-to-head doesn't help Union's cause either. The most recent meeting, back in January at Union Berlin's ground, ended 0-3 to Dortmund. And if you look at the older meetings – those are historical, not current form – Dortmund have won 10 of the 16 meetings between these two sides.
Dortmund's away record over 20 games is 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, with 1.8 goals scored per game and just 1.25 conceded. Union Berlin at home? 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses, 1.65 scored, 1.85 conceded. Dortmund's away numbers are simply in a different league.
The xG numbers back it up too. Dortmund are averaging 2.21 xG per game in their recent matches with data, while Union Berlin sit at 1.76. Dortmund's defensive xG against is 1.13 per game, and while Union Berlin's is 0.83, their actual goals conceded tell a very different story at 3.4 per game in their last five.
The counter-argument? Union Berlin did grab a clean sheet against Elversberg in their last game, and they've drawn 8 of their last 20 home games, which means they do find a way to get a point at home. Plus, Dortmund's last game was a draw, so they're not perfect. But one draw against Bremen doesn't undo the four wins that came before it.
Key Points:
- Borussia Dortmund: 4W 1D 0L in last 5, 12 goals scored, 6 conceded
- Union Berlin: 1W 1D 3L in last 5, 5 goals scored, 17 conceded
- Dortmund's away record (20 games): 11W 3D 6L, 1.25 conceded per game
- Union Berlin's home record (20 games): 5W 8D 7L, 1.85 conceded per game
- H2H at this venue (recent): Dortmund won 3-0 in January
I'm going with the Borussia Dortmund away win at 1.73. The form, the venue records, and the head-to-head all point the same way, and the price feels a touch shy of what the numbers are telling me.