Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this mid-table scrap between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg. Both sides are knocking around the same spot in the league, but don't let that fool you - there's a right old difference in how they're playing at the moment.

Union Berlin have been a bit up and down lately, haven't they? They had a decent 3-1 win over Gladbach at home, but then went and lost 1-0 to Werder Bremen. Before that, they were shipping goals for fun - 2-4 against Hoffenheim, 0-3 to Dortmund. They're scoring a fair bit (1.7 per game), but they're also letting in 1.6 goals per match, which is a bit worrying for the home fans.

Freiburg, on the other hand, look much more solid. Only one loss in their last ten games, which is proper decent form. They've been grinding out results - a 3-1 win at Fortuna Düsseldorf in the cup, a 2-2 draw with Frankfurt, and they only lost 2-0 to Leverkusen, who are flying this season. The big difference is at the back - they're only letting in 0.9 goals per game, and away from home they're even tighter, conceding just 0.8 per match.

Head-to-head, Union have historically had the edge over Freiburg, but at home it's been pretty even - two wins and two draws from their four meetings on their patch. The recent matches have been tight affairs too, lots of 1-0s and 0-0s.

Looking at the stats, Freiburg are averaging 1.9 points per game compared to Union's 1.4, which tells you everything about their recent form. Union might have home advantage, but Freiburg's defensive solidity could be the difference here.

The goal numbers suggest we're looking at around 2.6 goals in this one, but given Freiburg's defensive record and Union's inconsistency, I reckon we might see fewer than that.

Key Points:

• Freiburg in much better recent form (5W, 4D, 1L vs Union's 4W, 2D, 4L)

• Freiburg's defense is solid - only 0.9 goals conceded per game

• Union leaky at the back - 1.6 goals conceded per game

• Head-to-head matches have been tight and low-scoring recently

• Both teams mid-table but heading in different directions form-wise

The value here looks to be with Under 2.5 goals. Freiburg come to defend and Union have been inconsistent, so we could be in for a tight, low-scoring affair. The odds of 1.80 look decent for what the stats are telling us.