Union Brescia vs PRO Vercelli Prediction

Right, so we've got Union Brescia hosting PRO Vercelli on 9 October in Serie C Girone A, and if you've been following the numbers, there's a pretty clear angle here.

Let's start with the venue records, because that's where the story really lives. Union Brescia at home over their last 20 games have seen both teams score in 12 of those 20. That's 60%. PRO Vercelli on the road over their last 20 away games? Both teams have scored in 13 of those 20. That's 65%. So when you put these two sides together, the evidence says both boxes get ticked more often than not. Union Brescia's home record also shows 1.7 goals scored per game and 0.85 conceded per game, while PRO Vercelli on the road are averaging 1.1 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides are putting goals on the board and letting a few in.

Look at the recent form and it backs that up. Union Brescia have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches — the only blank sheet was that 0-0 at Trento on 13 September. PRO Vercelli have also found the net in 4 of their last 5, with the exception being that 0-4 loss at Trento on 21 September. Both teams are scoring, and both teams are conceding. Union Brescia have conceded in 3 of their last 5, and PRO Vercelli have conceded in 4 of their last 5. The goals are coming from both ends.

Now, the counter-argument. Union Brescia have drawn 4 of their last 5, and their current run is two draws. The most recent head-to-head meeting — back in January at Vercelli's ground — ended 0-0. If the match goes tight and defensive, the under 2.5 or a BTTS no could creep in. PRO Vercelli's away record does show 7 BTTS no in 20, and they've kept clean sheets in 2 of those 20 away games. There's a case for a low-scoring affair.

But here's the thing: the 0-0 H2H was 8 months ago, and the older 5-0 meeting at Union Brescia's ground is historical record. The venue records over 20 games each are the real story, and they both point the same way. Both teams are scoring regularly at this ground and on the road. The 60% and 65% figures are consistent with the recent form, and the 0-0 from January doesn't really shift the picture when you look at the wider record.

Key Points:

• Union Brescia have seen both teams score in 12 of their last 20 home games

• PRO Vercelli have seen both teams score in 13 of their last 20 away games

• Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches

• The most recent head-to-head meeting was a 0-0 draw at Vercelli's ground, 8 months ago

• Union Brescia's home record shows 1.7 goals scored per game and 0.85 conceded per game

The price on both teams to score is 2.0, and the market is pricing it at 50%. I'd put my own estimate a touch higher, around 55%, based on the venue records and the fact that both sides are finding the net regularly. That's a small but real edge, and the numbers back it up.

My tip: both teams to score.