Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Union St. Gilloise hosting OH Leuven on 11 October in the Jupiler Pro League, and let me tell you, the form books are reading like a bedtime story for the home side.
Union St. Gilloise have won their last five matches, and not just won them — they've absolutely clobbered them. Five wins, 16 goals scored, just 2 conceded. That's 3.2 goals a game and 0.4 conceded. They beat Antwerp 2-0 away on 20 September, thrashed Plzen 3-0 in Europe on 17 September, demolished Lommel United 5-0 at home on 12 September, and got 3-2 and 3-0 on the road earlier in the month. This is a team on a roll, and they're rolling into this one with serious momentum.
And at home? Well, over the last 20 home games, Union St. Gilloise have won 16, drawn 4, and lost... zero. Not a single defeat. They score 2.35 a game at home and concede just 0.55. Eleven of those 20 were clean sheets. That's a remarkable record, plain and simple.
Now, OH Leuven. Look, I'm not saying they're bad — I'm just saying the numbers don't lie. In their last five, they've got 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses. They scored 4 and conceded 7. Away from home over 20 games, it's 3 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses. They score 1.05 a game on the road and concede 1.8. Their xG against in recent games is sitting at 2.4 per game, which means they're getting battered.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — the only meeting in the last 12 months was a 0-0 draw at OH Leuven's ground back on 24 January. But the older meetings at Union St. Gilloise's ground tell a different story: 1-0 and 5-1, both Union St. Gilloise wins. So when they've hosted this lot before, Union St. Gilloise have taken the points both times.
The counter-argument? Well, that 0-0 in January shows OH Leuven can park the bus, and Union St. Gilloise's xG against is 0.98 per game, which isn't nothing. Plus, OH Leuven did grab a 2-0 win at home against RAAL La Louvière on 19 September, so they're not completely dead. But honestly, that's a thin reed to hang a defence on.
Key Points:
- Union St. Gilloise have won 5 in a row, scoring 16 and conceding just 2
- Unbeaten at home in 20 games: 16 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses
- OH Leuven are 3W 6D 11L in 20 away games, scoring 1.05 and conceding 1.8 per game
- The only recent head-to-head (24 January 2026) was a 0-0 draw at OH Leuven's ground
- Union St. Gilloise's xG against is 0.98 per game; OH Leuven's xG for is 1.36 per game
My verdict: Union St. Gilloise home win. The form, the home record, the away team's struggles — it all points the same way. I'd rate this at around 83%, which sits above the 78.13% the market is pricing in. At 1.28, it's not a massive return, but the evidence is hard to argue with.