Universitatea Craiova vs CFR 1907 Cluj Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Romanian scrap between Universitatea Craiova and CFR Cluj. On paper, this looks like a mismatch - Craiova sitting pretty in 4th with 33 points, while Cluj are languishing down in 12th with just 19 points. But football's not played on paper, is it?

Craiova have been proper solid lately, mind you. Only one loss in their last ten games - that's the kind of consistency that gets you places. They've kept five clean sheets in those ten matches and are only letting in 0.7 goals per game on average. Recent results show they're hard to break down: a 0-0 draw away at Universitatea Cluj, a 1-0 win over FSV Mainz in Europe, and even managed a 2-2 draw with league leaders Rapid. Their defense has been tighter than a Scotsman's wallet.

Cluj, on the other hand, are a bit of a mixed bag. They just scraped a 2-2 draw with bottom side Metaloglobus in the cup, got hammered 3-0 by Arges Pitesti in the league, but then pulled off a cracking 3-0 win over Rapid. Talk about inconsistent! Away from home, they've been particularly shaky - only two wins in seven trips on the road.

Here's where it gets interesting though - the head-to-head tells a different story. Craiova's home record against Cluj is surprisingly poor: just one win, one draw, and two losses at home against them. Their last meeting ended 3-2, so when these two get together, goals tend to flow.

Looking at the stats, Craiova are better on the ball (57.4% vs 52.3% possession) and much tighter defensively. Cluj do score more goals (1.5 vs 1.2 per game), but they also leak more at the back (1.3 vs 0.7 conceded). Craiova have also had more rest - six days compared to Cluj's three, and they've played one fewer match in the last fortnight.

The bookies have Craiova as favorites at 2.05, which seems about right given their league position and form. But with that dodgy home H2H record, I'm not completely convinced. What I do like is the look of under 2.5 goals at 1.85. Craiova's defense has been immense lately, and while Cluj can score, they've been inconsistent on the road.

Key Points:

• Craiova in excellent form with only 1 loss in last 10 games

• Craiova's defense is solid - 5 clean sheets in 10 matches, only 0.7 goals conceded per game

• Cluj inconsistent away from home - only 2 wins in 7 away trips

• Surprising H2H record - Craiova poor at home vs Cluj historically (1-1-2)

• Craiova better rested (6 days vs 3 days)

• Last meeting ended 3-2, suggesting goals when they play

Given Craiova's defensive solidity and Cluj's away struggles, I'm backing under 2.5 goals here. Craiova have been keeping things tight at the back, and while Cluj showed they can score against Rapid, they've also been shipping goals. The odds of 1.85 seem decent value for what should be a tight, defensive affair.