Universitatea Craiova vs Uta Arad Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper butcher's at this Liga I clash between Universitatea Craiova and Uta Arad. The table tells you half the story before we even kick off - Craiova are sitting pretty in 3rd with 29 points, while Arad are languishing down in 9th with just 19. That's a proper gap between these two sides.

Craiova's recent form has been a bit draw-happy for my liking - five draws in their last ten games. But when you look closer, they've been mixing it with the big boys. A 2-2 draw with Rapid (who're joint top) shows they can handle themselves, and they put four past Sănătatea Cluj in the cup. At home, they've been solid as a rock - unbeaten in their last four, even if three of those were draws. They're averaging two goals per home game, which ain't too shabby at all.

Uta Arad, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it away from home. They've lost three of their last five on the road, scoring less than a goal per game while letting in nearly two. They got absolutely hammered 4-0 by FCSB and 4-0 by Oţelul recently - not the kind of form that fills you with confidence for a trip to the in-form side in the top three.

Now here's where it gets interesting - the head-to-head is completely one-sided. Craiova have won six of the nine meetings, with three draws, and Arad have NEVER beaten them. Not once! At home, Craiova's record against Arad is three wins and a draw. Even better for us goals fans, seven of those nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, including that 3-3 thriller earlier this season.

The stats back this up too. Craiova are averaging 2 goals at home, Arad are conceding 1.8 away. The goal expectancy has this game down for about three goals total. When you factor in that Craiova haven't lost at home in ages and Arad can't stop leaking goals on the road, you've got all the ingredients for a proper goal fest.

The odds makers have got Craiova at 1.48 for the win, which is probably about right but doesn't exactly get the pulse racing. But the over 2.5 goals at 1.70? Now that's more like it. Given the recent goal-fests between these sides and both teams' recent form, that looks like proper value to me.