Valencia vs Real Betis Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga clash between Valencia and Real Betis. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, and the numbers back that up.

Valencia are having a right old time of it down in 18th place with just 9 points from 11 games. They've been leaking goals like a sieve - 1.8 per game on average - and their recent form reads like a horror story. They've been hammered 4-0 by Real Madrid, lost 0-2 at home to Villarreal, and even got turned over 1-2 at home by Oviedo, who are sitting below them in the table. Their only recent wins came against mid-table sides Athletic Club and Getafe, and they needed a cup game against lower division Maracena to get a confidence boost with that 5-0 win.

Real Betis, on the other hand, are flying high in 5th place. They've been solid as a rock at the back, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, and they've been banging them in for fun on their travels - 2.6 goals per away game! Their away record is proper impressive too, winning 60% of their last 5 on the road. They've only lost once in their last 10 games, and that was a narrow 0-2 defeat to top-four side Atletico Madrid.

The head-to-head suggests we might see a few goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of the last 9 meetings. But given Betis's defensive solidity and Valencia's struggles at home against decent teams, I'm leaning towards the visitors.

Valencia's home form looks decent on paper at 50% wins, but dig deeper and you'll see they've lost to Villarreal and Oviedo at home recently. Betis are a cut above both those sides, and their away form suggests they'll be too strong.

The goal expectancy has Betis as clear favorites (1.80 vs 1.15), and at 2.25 for the away win, there's decent value to be had here. Betis have been scoring for fun on their travels, while Valencia have been shipping goals at home.

Sometimes you've got to call it straight - Betis look like they've got too much quality for a struggling Valencia side.