Preview
Mr SimpleValladolid are at home on 12 October to face Albacete, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear lean.
Let's start with the visitors. Albacete have won just one game in their last ten — and that's the best news for Valladolid. In their last five, they've managed a single draw and four losses, sitting on a three-game losing run that's seen them concede seven goals and score just two. They lost 1-3 to Eibar at home on 3 October, got thumped 0-2 at Girona on 25 September, and dropped 1-2 to Cordoba on 18 September. The numbers don't lie: 0.2 points per game over that stretch, and they've kept a clean sheet in none of those five. Their away record over 20 games reads 6W 6D 8L at 1.2 points per game, but their recent away outings have been a nightmare — two 0-2 losses and a 1-1 draw at Granada.
Now look at Valladolid at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, averaging 1.55 points per game. They score 1.1 a game at home and concede 1. In their last ten across all grounds, they've picked up 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses at 1.5 points per game, scoring 1.5 a game. They beat Cordoba 3-1 at home on 27 September and got a 2-2 draw at Las Palmas on 4 October. Two wins, two draws, one loss — not a bad run of form heading into this.
The head-to-head at this ground is a bit of a wrinkle. Eight months ago, on 24 January, Albacete came here and nicked it 1-0. But that's the only meeting within the last 12 months, and Albacete's form since then has gone into freefall. The older meetings — two 2-0 wins for Albacete at their ground, a 0-0 draw here, and a 3-2 for Valladolid — are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now. The dates on those older games stretch back eight years, so they dilute any current form picture.
The counter-argument is that Albacete's away record over 20 games isn't a disaster: 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses. And that 1-0 at this ground eight months ago shows they can grind out a result here. But that was a different Albacete — one that wasn't on a three-game losing run and hadn't just lost 1-3 at home to Eibar nine days before this fixture. The form gap between the two sides right now is significant, and Valladolid's home numbers back that up.
Key Points:
- Albacete are 0W 1D 4L in their last five, on a three-game losing run with 7 goals conceded and 2 scored
- Valladolid have won 9 of their last 20 home games, averaging 1.55 points per game
- The only recent meeting at this ground went to Albacete 1-0 on 24 January, eight months ago
- Albacete's away record over 20 games is 6W 6D 8L, but their recent away outings have been poor
- Valladolid's last ten across all grounds: 4W 3D 3L at 1.5 points per game
My pick: Valladolid home win at 2.0. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the market's 50% price is underpricing what I see on the pitch.