Preview
Pajimon here, folks! Grab a cold one and let's crack into this one. Valladolid host Eldense on 18 October in the Segunda División, and the numbers are telling a pretty clear story.
Valladolid's home record over the last 20 games at their ground is 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, averaging 1.55 points per game. They've scored 1.25 per game at home and conceded just 0.95, with 8 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. Their last two home games have been a 5-0 demolition of Albacete on 12 October and a 3-1 win over Cordoba on 27 September. That's a team firing on all cylinders at home, and their current run is a win — the 5-0 over Albacete — where they scored 5 and conceded nothing.
Now look at Eldense on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, just 1 point per game. They score 0.85 per game away and concede 1.35. Their last two away trips produced a 0-1 loss to Burgos on 27 September and a 1-0 win over Sporting Gijon on 13 September. That's a team that struggles to find goals on the road and leaks goals at a worrying rate.
The head-to-head here is dated — the last two meetings were in 2023 and 2024, both won by Valladolid (1-0 at home and 1-0 away). So I'm leaning on the current form and venue records rather than those old scores. The older meetings do show Valladolid keeping clean sheets in both, but that's two games from a couple of years back, not a trend.
The counter-argument? Eldense are in decent shape overall. Their last five games produced 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses at 1.8 points per game, and their current run is two wins (6 goals scored, 2 conceded). Two of those wins were comfortable home results — 2-1 over Cordoba and 4-1 over Oviedo. They're not a team to write off entirely, and that 1-0 away win over Sporting Gijon five weeks ago shows they can get results on the road.
But when you put Valladolid's home numbers against Eldense's away numbers, the gap is significant. Valladolid are averaging 1.55 points per game at home to Eldense's 1 away, scoring more and conceding less. The market has Valladolid at 1.97, implying about 51%. Based on the venue records and recent form, I'd rate Valladolid's chance of winning at around 55%, which sits comfortably above the market's view. The home record is doing the heavy lifting here, and Eldense's away numbers simply don't back them up.
Key Points:
- Valladolid's home record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, 1.55 PPG, 8 clean sheets
- Eldense's away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games, 1 PPG, 4 clean sheets
- Valladolid's last two home games: 5-0 and 3-1 wins
- Eldense's last two away games: 0-1 loss and 1-0 win
- Head-to-head is historical (2023-2024), both won by Valladolid
Verdict: I'm going with the Valladolid home win.
