Valladolid vs FC Andorra Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda División clash. Valladolid, sitting pretty in 8th, welcome an FC Andorra side who are having a bit of a nightmare down in 19th. On paper, it's a home banker, but as we know, football's never that simple, is it?

Valladolid are coming off a belting 4-1 win away at Huesca last weekend. That's the sort of result that gets the confidence flowing. Before that, their home form has been a bit hit and miss – a draw with Malaga, a loss to high-flying Las Palmas, but a win against Granada. The pattern seems to be they can put the lesser lights to the sword, but struggle against the top dogs. Good news for them, Andorra are very much in the 'lesser lights' category at the moment.

Andorra's recent form makes for grim reading. One win in their last ten, and that was in the cup against lower-league opposition. In the league, it's been a proper struggle. They're shipping goals for fun on their travels – conceding over two a game on average. They lost 4-1 at Malaga, 4-2 at Cultural Leonesa in the cup, and 2-1 at home to Almeria last time out. The defence has more holes than a sieve.

But here's the interesting bit. For all their faults, Andorra actually know where the net is away from home. They're averaging a surprising 1.83 goals per game on the road. They might be leaky, but they're not shy. Valladolid, meanwhile, score a decent 1.25 per game at home but let in 1.50. That tells me both nets could be rippling.

When you look at the head-to-head, it's one win apiece from two games. Valladolid won 2-0 at home last season, Andorra nicked it 2-1 on their patch. So there's a bit of history there.

The bookies have Valladolid as strong favourites at 1.65, which feels about right. But the value, for my money, lies elsewhere. The goal expectancies are high – nearly 1.7 for each side – and both teams have shown they can score and concede. Andorra have seen both teams score in 7 of their last 10 games. Valladolid have seen it in 5 of their last 10. Put it together, and the chances of both getting on the scoresheet look pretty healthy.

Key Points:

Valladolid are in better form and league position, fresh from a 4-1 win.

FC Andorra are struggling badly, with just one win in ten.

Andorra's main issue is defence, conceding 2.17 goals per game on average away.

However, they score plenty on the road too (1.83 per game).

Valladolid score and concede regularly at home (1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded).

The head-to-head is evenly split, with both previous meetings seeing goals.

So, while Valladolid should probably win this, the price on the home win is a bit skinny for my liking. The real story here is goals. And at odds of 1.83 for Both Teams to Score, I think there's a bit of value to be had. I'm expecting an open game where both sides find the net.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes.