Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this early Serie A tussle. Vasco DA Gama welcome Chapecoense-sc, and if the stats are anything to go by, we could be in for a proper game. The table says it's early days – Chapecoense are sitting pretty in 2nd after thumping Santos 4-2, while Vasco are down in 12th after a 2-1 loss to Mirassol. But forget the table for a minute, the real story is in the form book.

Chapecoense are absolutely flying. Six wins in their last ten, scoring 19 goals in the process. That's nearly two a game. They've been bashing them in, including a 6-0 demolition of Joinville and that 4-2 win over a decent Santos side. They're confident, they're scoring, and even on the road they're handy, winning 40% of their away games and netting 1.20 per trip.

Vasco, on the other hand, are a bit all over the shop. Three wins, three draws, four losses from their last ten. They can put a few past the lesser lights – like that 3-0 win over Boavista SC and a 4-2 against CFRJ – but they've come up short against the better sides, losing to Flamengo, Fluminense, and Mirassol. At home, they're a 50/50 proposition, scoring a healthy 1.75 per game but also letting in 1.25. They're not exactly watertight.

Now, here's the juicy bit – the head-to-head. These two love a draw. Six draws in their nine meetings! Vasco haven't lost at home to Chapecoense in five attempts (one win, four draws). And in those nine games, both teams have scored in seven of them. That's a massive 78% strike rate for BTTS. It's a proper pattern.

So, what's gonna happen? Chapecoense are in red-hot form and will fancy their chances. Vasco are at home and historically a tough nut for them to crack. The stats suggest both will find the net: Vasco score at home, Chapecoense score away. Vasco concede at home, Chapecoense concede away. It's set up for goals at both ends.

The bookies have Vasco as favourites at 1.72, which feels a bit short given the visitor's form. The draw at 3.80 might tempt some given the history, but the value for me lies in the goals market. Both Teams to Score is priced at 1.99. With that historical trend and the current attacking numbers, I fancy that to land.

Key Points:

Chapecoense are in scintillating form, with 6 wins in 10 and 19 goals scored.

Vasco are inconsistent but score freely at home (1.75 per game).

Head-to-head is a draw specialist: 6 draws in 9 matches.

Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these sides.

• Vasco's home defense concedes 1.25 goals per game; Chapecoense's away attack scores 1.20.

Summary: This has the makings of an entertaining, end-to-end affair. Chapecoense's momentum is scary, but Vasco's home record against them is strong. Rather than trying to pick a winner in a tricky match, the smart money is on both teams getting on the scoresheet, just as they usually do when these two meet.