Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Venezia, sitting pretty at the top of Serie B, welcome Modena to town. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but as we know, football isn't played on paper, is it?
Let's start with the form guide, and it makes for some serious reading. Venezia are absolutely flying. They've won eight of their last nine league games, and the only blip was a draw away at Avellino. They're not just beating the also-rans, either. Their recent results include a 2-1 win away at second-placed Frosinone, a 3-1 home win over Catanzaro, and a 2-0 victory against a very strong Monza side. They're scoring for fun – 22 goals in their last 10 – and at home, they've been a fortress, winning their last four and conceding just two goals in the process. That's proper title-chasing form.
Modena, on the other hand, are having a right stinker. Two wins in their last ten tells its own story. Their last victory was a 2-0 win at rock-bottom Pescara, and before that, you have to go back to mid-December for a win at Spezia. They've lost at home to Sampdoria, Padova, Monza, and even to these very Venezia lads back in December. Their away form is slightly less grim, with two wins from their last five on the road, but they simply don't score enough, managing just 0.8 goals per game away from home.
Now, the head-to-head makes even grimmer reading if you're a Modena fan. In seven meetings, Venezia have won five and drawn two. Modena have never beaten them. The last clash was just before Christmas, and Venezia came away from Modena's gaff with a 2-1 win. The stats show over 2.5 goals in six of those seven games, so there's usually a bit of action.
So, what's the play here? The bookies have Venezia at 2.05 to win. To me, that looks like a bit of value. You've got the league leaders, in scintillating form, at home, against a side that's won just twice since November and has a mental block against them. Modena might be tight at the back on their travels (conceding only 0.6 per game away), but Venezia's attack is a different beast, averaging two goals a game at home.
Key Points:
Venezia are top of Serie B and have won 8 of their last 9 league matches.
Their recent wins include victories over fellow promotion contenders Frosinone, Monza, and Catanzaro.
Modena have won just 2 of their last 10 matches, losing 6.
Venezia have never lost to Modena in 7 attempts (5 wins, 2 draws).
Venezia won the reverse fixture 2-1 away in December.
At home, Venezia average 2 goals scored and concede just 0.5 per game.
Summary:
All the data points one way. Venezia are the form team in the division, they dominate this fixture historically, and they're playing at home where they've been virtually untouchable lately. Modena are struggling for points and goals. While their away defence is respectable, facing this Venezia side is a massive step up in class. The odds of 2.05 for a home win offer genuine value given the gulf in current quality and momentum. My money's on the league leaders to get the job done.
