Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceThe force is strong with Modena, I tell you. Three victories from their last five matches, ten goals scored, and only six conceded. Their defence, measured by expected goals against, has allowed just 0.88 per game across six recent fixtures. A quiet strength, that is. The kind that does not shout but simply holds the line.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have stumbled. Three losses from five, including a 0–3 defeat at home to Pisa on 10 October. Their expected goals against stands at 1.62 per game — a number that speaks of a backline under pressure. Yet I must not forget: over 20 home games spanning 11 months, Vicenza have won 10, drawn 5, and lost 5, averaging 1.75 points per game. The home record is not to be dismissed. But the last five tell a different story, and the older games dilute what we see now.
The head-to-head here is a ghost from another era. Two meetings, both in Serie C, in 2019 and 2020. A 1–0 Vicenza win at home and a 0–0 draw at Modena. No meetings within the last 12 months. So we lean on what is before us: form, venue records, and the numbers that do not lie.
Modena's away record over 20 games shows 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses — 1.25 points per game. Vicenza's home record is the stronger of the two, but the recent form gap is wide. Modena scored 2 per game in their last five; Vicenza scored 1.2. Modena conceded 1.2; Vicenza conceded 1.8. The visitors arrive with momentum and a defence that has been quiet. The hosts arrive with a home record that is solid but a recent run that is not.
The market prices Modena's win at 2.12, implying a 47.17% chance. My own reading of the form, the defensive numbers, and the venue records puts the visitors' probability closer to 50%. The edge is small but real, and the evidence points in one direction.
Key Points:
- Modena have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6; Vicenza have lost 3 of 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9.
- Modena's expected goals against is 0.88 per game; Vicenza's is 1.62 per game.
- Vicenza's home record over 20 games is 10W 5D 5L, but recent form is poor.
- The head-to-head is historical only, with no meetings in the last 12 months.
- Modena's away record: 7W 4D 9L in 20 games.
The wise path is clear. I recommend the away win.
