Preview
PajimonViking have been absolutely cooking at home, and this one smells like another braai for them. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 18, drawn 1 and lost just 1, scoring 3.45 goals per game while conceding only 0.9. That's not a fluke — it's a pattern that keeps repeating. Their last five matches across all venues have been 4 wins and 1 draw, with 19 goals scored and just 4 conceded. The 8-1 thrashing of Kristiansund BK on 13 September and the 3-0 over Lillestrom on 20 September showed just how dominant they are in front of their own crowd. Even the 3-3 draw with Bayern München on 13 October, while a Champions League affair, still had Viking scoring three times at home.
Fredrikstad, on the other hand, have been treading water on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses, with 1.55 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game. Their last five matches have been 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, and they've only managed 5 goals in that stretch. The 1-1 draws against Tromso on 11 October and Sarpsborg 08 on 13 September, plus the 1-1 at Valerenga's ground on 20 September, paint a picture of a team that's struggling to find a winner. Their current run is two draws, and they've scored just 1 goal per game in that last five.
The head-to-head makes it even clearer. In the last 12 months, Viking have won both meetings — 2-1 on 25 April and 1-0 on 23 November, both at Fredrikstad's ground. The older meetings at Viking's ground (3-0 on 22 June 2025 and 2-0 on 1 March 2025) are historical record, but they reinforce the pattern. Fredrikstad have not beaten Viking in any of the last four meetings. Now, I'll be honest — those older games at Viking's ground are dated, so I'm leaning on the recent form and the last 12 months of head-to-head, and that still tells the same story.
Now, the counter-argument. Viking's most recent game was that 3-3 draw with Bayern, and it showed they can be caught out. Fredrikstad have kept their last two matches level, and their away record does include 8 wins, so they're not without a chance. The 1-2 and 0-1 scores in the recent H2H also suggest this could be a tight affair rather than a rout. Fredrikstad's xG against in their last five games with data was 1.52 per game, and they've only conceded 2 actual goals in those five, so their defence has been holding up better than the results suggest.
But the numbers don't lie, and I'm not about to argue with a 18-1-1 home record. Viking at home against Fredrikstad away is a mismatch on the evidence. The market prices Viking's win at 1.31, implying about 76% chance. My own read, based on the home record, the recent form and the head-to-head, puts Viking's win probability closer to 80%. That's a slight edge over the market's view, and I'm comfortable with it.
Key Points:
- Viking have won 18 of their last 20 home games, scoring 3.45 per game and conceding 0.9
- Fredrikstad's away record is 8W 3D 9L over 20 games, with 1.55 scored and 1.85 conceded per game
- Viking won both recent H2H meetings (2-1 on 25 April and 1-0 on 23 November)
- Fredrikstad have drawn their last two matches and scored just 1 goal per game in their last 5
- Viking's last 5: 4W 1D, 19 goals scored, 4 conceded
So here's my call: I'm going with the Viking home win at 1.31. Eish, what a meal that's going to be.