Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Viking are at home on 17 October and Fredrikstad are on the road, and if you've got a look at the numbers, this one's got a shape to it.
Viking have been absolutely tearing up their home record. Eighteen wins from twenty home games, 3.45 goals a game, and they've only conceded 0.9 per match. That's not just good, that's proper dominant. Add in the fact they've won both of their last two meetings with Fredrikstad — 2–1 and 1–0 at Fredrikstad's end — and you've got a side that knows exactly how to handle this fixture. In their last five matches, they've won four and drawn one, scoring 3.8 a game and conceding just 0.8. The 3–3 draw with Bayern München four days ago was a Champions League night, not an Eliteserien grind, so I wouldn't read too much into it.
Fredrikstad, on the other hand, are struggling on the travel. Eight wins, three draws, nine losses from twenty away games. They're scoring 1.55 a game and conceding 1.85. Their last five matches have been one win, three draws and a loss, and four of those five finished under 2.5 goals. They're not exactly setting the world alight when they're away from home. The current run has them drawing their last two, but that's not the same as winning, and the away record over twenty games is the real story here.
Now, the counter-argument. Fredrikstad have scored in all five of their last five, so they're not without a goal threat. And that Bayern draw does show Viking aren't invincible — they conceded three in a game. But that was a different competition, a different level, and the domestic numbers at this ground tell a very different story. Eighteen wins from twenty at home is hard to argue with, and Fredrikstad's away record simply doesn't give them the legs to turn it around.
Key Points:
- Viking: 18W 1D 1L from 20 home games, 3.45 goals per game, 0.9 conceded
- Fredrikstad: 8W 3D 9L from 20 away games, 1.55 goals per game, 1.85 conceded
- Viking won both recent H2H meetings (2–1 and 1–0 at Fredrikstad's ground)
- Fredrikstad's last five: 1W 3D 1L, four of five under 2.5 goals
- Viking's last five: 4W 1D, scoring 3.8 per game
So here's the call. I'm backing the Viking home win at 1.31. The numbers at this ground are too strong to ignore, and Fredrikstad's away record simply doesn't give them the legs to turn it around. No jargon, just goals, graft, and good value.