Vila Nova vs Avai Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B clash between Vila Nova and Avai. Both sides are knocking about in mid-table with nowt to play for really, but that doesn't mean we can't find some value.

Vila Nova have become the draw kings of late, haven't they? In their last 10 games, they've managed just one win but seven draws! Look at their recent results - it's like they've got a phobia of winning. 2-2 against Operario, 2-2 with Ferroviária, 1-1 versus America Mineiro, 1-1 against Criciuma... you get the picture. At home, it's even more extreme - 80% of their last five home games have ended level. They're scoring a decent 1.4 goals at home but also letting in 1.2, which explains all those stalemates.

Avai, sitting six points above their hosts, have shown a bit more spark recently. They've picked up three wins in their last 10, including a decent 2-1 victory over Athletic Club and a 3-0 thumping of Volta Redonda. But on their travels, they're not exactly world-beaters - just one win in four away games, scoring a paltry 0.75 goals per game away from home.

Here's the interesting bit though - Vila Nova absolutely love playing Avai at home. Their head-to-head record at home against these lads is 3 wins, 1 draw, no losses. That's proper domination. The last meeting ended 1-1, but historically, Vila Nova have had Avai's number on their own patch.

Both teams are pretty similar statistically - both scoring 1.1 goals per game overall, both conceding around 1.3-1.4, and both with shocking clean sheet rates of just 10%. When you've got two teams that can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives, you'd normally fancy both teams to score, and indeed 60-70% of their recent games have seen both sides find the net.

The odds makers have Vila Nova as slight favorites at 2.05, which makes sense given their home advantage in this fixture. But when you look at Vila Nova's recent home form being almost exclusively draws, and Avai's struggles on the road, the 3.00 for a draw starts to look mighty tempting.

Given Vila Nova's recent home pattern and both teams' similar attacking/defensive capabilities, I'm siding with the draw here. It's not the most exciting tip, but sometimes the smart money is on the boring result!