Villarreal vs Elche Prediction

The strongest argument in this fixture is the scoring output of both sides at their respective grounds. Villarreal have scored in 18 of their last 20 home games, averaging 2.2 goals per match, and in 16 of those 20 both teams found the net. Elche, meanwhile, have scored in 18 of their last 20 away games and in 17 of those 20 both teams scored. The head-to-head reinforces this: in both meetings within the last 12 months, Villarreal won 2–1 at their own ground on 8 March and 3–1 at Elche's on 3 January, with both sides finding the net on each occasion.

Villarreal arrive in good form, winning three of their last five matches 3–1 — against Napoli on 13 October, Levante on 20 September, and Malaga on 17 September. Their home record over 20 games stands at 12 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, with 1.85 points per game. Elche's away record over 20 games is 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses, with 0.7 points per game and 1.15 goals scored per match. The gap in points per game between the two sides at their respective grounds is stark, and Villarreal's three 3–1 wins in their last five matches suggest they are in a scoring rhythm.

The counter-argument is that Elche drew 0–0 at home against Celta Vigo on 11 October, just six days before this fixture, and Villarreal were held scoreless in their 0–1 loss to Real Madrid on 10 October. Villarreal also lost 1–2 to Real Betis at home on 14 September. These three scoreless or low-scoring results suggest the possibility of a tighter game than the records imply. Elche's last five matches include two draws and two losses, with their only win coming 3–1 at Espanyol on 18 September. The 0–0 draw in particular shows Elche can shut a game down, and Villarreal's 1–2 home defeat to Betis reminds us that even at home they are not impervious.

Key Points:

• Villarreal have scored in 18 of their last 20 home games and both teams scored in 16 of those 20

• Elche have scored in 18 of their last 20 away games and both teams scored in 17 of those 20

• Both recent head-to-head meetings (2–1 and 1–3) saw both sides find the net

• Villarreal won three of their last five matches, each 3–1

• Elche's away record: 3W 5D 12L in 20 games, 0.7 points per game

The records at both ends of the pitch point the same way: Villarreal score at home and Elche score away, and the last two meetings between these sides confirmed it. I rate the chance of both teams scoring at around 75%, which sits comfortably above the market's 61.73% implied by the 1.62 price. Both teams to score is my pick.