Virtus Entella vs Empoli Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-of-the-table scrap in Serie B. Virtus Entella and Empoli are both stuck in the relegation muck, separated by just one point - this is exactly the kind of game where seasons get defined.

Now, here's the interesting bit. Virtus Entella have been proper decent on their own patch lately. Unbeaten in five at home with two wins and three draws. They're banging in 1.6 goals per game at home and only letting in 1.0. They gave Sampdoria a proper 3-1 hiding not long ago and ground out a 1-0 against Mantova. Yeah, they got stuffed 4-0 by Frosinone last time out, but that was away from home.

Empoli, on the other hand, are absolutely shocking on the road. Lost four of their last five away matches, and get this - they haven't kept a single clean sheet in ten games this season. Ten games! They're shipping 2.6 goals per game away from home. They got battered 4-0 at Pescara and 3-1 at both Genoa and Reggiana recently. Their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot.

The head-to-head's pretty even overall, but Virtus Entella have only won one of their three home meetings against these lot. Still, form counts for more in these relegation battles.

What's really catching my eye is that both teams tend to score. Empoli's games see both teams score 90% of the time, and Virtus Entella aren't far behind at 60%. Given that Empoli can't defend to save their lives and Entella score freely at home, we could be in for a bit of a goal fest.

The bookies have got Virtus Entella as slight favourites at home, which makes sense given Empoli's travels. But for me, the real value might be elsewhere.