Preview
Value VinnyVoitsberg and First Vienna meet on 16 October in the 2. Liga, and the numbers tell a story that's hard to ignore. First Vienna arrive in strong recent form, having won four of their last five matches and scored 13 goals while conceding just four. Their away record over 20 games is the real headline: 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, with 1.6 goals scored per outing and 0.85 conceded. The last three competitive away results were a 3–1 win at WSPG Wels, a 2–0 at Rapid Wien II, and a 4–0 demolition of Austria Salzburg. That is a team that travels well and scores on the road.
Voitsberg, by contrast, are in a genuine slump. They lost their last two matches — 2–3 at Admira Wacker and 1–2 at Wolfsberger AC — and sit at 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses across their last five. They've conceded 11 goals in that span and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. Their home record over 20 games is historically strong at 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, but that window spans 12 months and the older results dilute what we're seeing now. Their most recent home result was a 2–1 win over Austria Salzburg three weeks ago, but before that they were beaten 1–4 by Sturm Graz at home. The home advantage narrative is fading.
The head-to-head is entirely historical — the last meeting was 17 months ago in April 2025, and the three recorded fixtures stretch back to 2023. First Vienna won two of those three, and Voitsberg failed to score in two of the three. I won't lean on that as current form, but it does paint a picture of a team that has struggled to find answers against First Vienna. The key counter-argument for Voitsberg is that home record: 14 wins in 20 home games, 3.25 goals scored per game, and 11 clean sheets. That's a solid baseline, and it means they're not a team to dismiss simply because their last two results were losses. But the trajectory is pointing the wrong way.
The market prices First Vienna's win at 2.15, implying a 46.51% chance. My own reading of the form, the away record, and the scoring disparity puts First Vienna's probability closer to 53%. That's a genuine edge, and it's the kind of mispricing I live for. The bookies are giving Voitsberg credit for a home record that's been eroded by their last five results, and they're underweighting how dominant First Vienna have been in their recent away games.
Key Points:
- First Vienna have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4; their last 3 competitive away games ended 3–1, 2–0 and 4–0.
- Voitsberg lost their last 2 and sit at 1W 1D 3L in their last 5, conceding 2.2 per game.
- First Vienna's 20-game away record: 11W 3D 6L, 1.6 scored per game, 0.85 conceded per game.
- Voitsberg's 20-game home record is strong (14W 2D 4L) but spans 12 months with older results diluting current form.
- The head-to-head is entirely historical (17 months to 3 years old); First Vienna won 2 of 3 and Voitsberg failed to score in 2 of 3.
Verdict: First Vienna away win at 2.15.