Preview
Right, so VPS are hosting Inter Turku on 24 October in the Veikkausliiga, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Let's start with the head-to-head, because it's been a bit of a one-sided affair lately. In the last four meetings between these two, Inter Turku have won three and drawn one. And here's the kicker: both of those wins at VPS's ground came in the last three months โ a 0โ1 in August and a 2โ3 in June (that one was in the Suomen Cup). VPS haven't managed a point against Inter Turku at home in recent times. The only blemish for Turku was a 0โ0 at their own ground back in April, so the pattern is clear: when these two meet, Inter Turku tend to get the job done.
Now look at VPS's form and you wince. Four losses in their last five games, and they've scored just one goal in that stretch. Eleven goals conceded, 0.2 a game on the attack. They did pick up a 1โ0 win over Gnistan at home on 12 October, which was a relief, but the 0โ6 thrashing by HJK Helsinki four days before that and the 0โ2 loss to KuPS at home in September paint a picture of a side struggling to find their feet. In their last five, at least one team failed to score in every single game โ that's five straight BTTS no results.
Inter Turku, on the other hand, have been quietly solid. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five. They've kept four clean sheets in that span and conceded just two goals. Their away record over 20 games is 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses โ 1.75 points per game โ which is a proper reliable record. VPS at home over 20 games sit at 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, 1.5 points per game. So even on the longer run, Turku on the road are the more consistent proposition.
The counter-argument? Well, VPS did win at home against Gnistan twelve days ago, so they're not completely dead. And the head-to-head at this ground has been low-scoring โ 0โ1 and 2โ3 โ so a tight, cagey affair isn't out of the question. Inter Turku also dropped their last game, a 1โ2 at home to AC Oulu (though Oulu had a man sent off in the 86th minute). And VPS's home record does show they can win โ 9 times in 20 โ so they're not without a home edge.
But the weight of evidence here leans heavily Turku's way. VPS are leaking goals like a sieve, Inter Turku are keeping it tight, and the head-to-head at this venue has been a Turku walkover in recent memory.
Key Points:
- Inter Turku won both recent meetings at VPS's ground (0โ1 and 2โ3) and three of the last four overall.
- VPS have lost 4 of their last 5, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 11.
- Inter Turku's away record over 20 games: 9W 8D 3L, 1.75 PPG; VPS home: 9W 3D 8L, 1.5 PPG.
- VPS failed to score in 4 of their last 5; Inter Turku kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5.
- The H2H at this venue has been low-scoring, but the pattern favours Turku getting the win.
My pick: Inter Turku away win at 1.73.
