Preview
Right, so we've got Wacker Innsbruck hosting Austria Salzburg on 16 October in the 2. Liga, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Wacker Innsbruck at home are the sort of side you'd want to avoid if you're travelling. In their last 20 home games, they've won 15, drawn 2 and lost 3. That's 2.35 points per game, 2.45 goals scored per game, and they've kept 11 clean sheets. Conceding just 0.8 per game at home? That's a solid defensive record, plain and simple. And they're in the middle of a run — won their last three, scoring 10 and conceding just 3. Their last five overall is 3 wins, 2 draws, no losses. The 5–0 thrashing of Kundl on 3 October and the 3–2 win at Sudtirol on 2 October show they've got the edge and the confidence.
Now look at Austria Salzburg on the road. Their last 20 away games? 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses. That's 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.55 and conceding 1.55. They've only kept 5 clean sheets in 20 away trips. Their last five is 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses — and that one win came at home against Floridsdorfer AC on 10 October. On the road, they lost to Voitsberg 1–2 on 19 September and drew 3–3 at WSPG Wels on 2 October. They're not exactly setting the world alight away from home.
The head-to-head here is... well, it's 10 years old. Four meetings between 2015 and 2016, and at Wacker Innsbruck's ground it was 2–2 and 1–1 — two draws. So there's no recent history to lean on. This is all about current form and venue records, and those point firmly one way.
The counter-argument? Well, Salzburg did pick up a win on 10 October, and they've scored in 4 of their last 5. Their away record does include 6 wins, so they're not completely toothless on the road. And Wacker Innsbruck have drawn two of their last five, so they're not invincible. But when you stack up 15 home wins against 6 away wins, and a 3-game winning run against a 1-game winning run, the balance tips hard.
Key Points:
- Wacker Innsbruck: 15W 2D 3L in 20 home games, 2.45 goals scored per game, 11 clean sheets
- Austria Salzburg: 6W 7D 7L in 20 away games, 1.55 goals scored per game
- Wacker Innsbruck won their last 3 (scored 10, conceded 3); Salzburg won their last 1
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (2015–2016), no meetings in the last 12 months
- Wacker Innsbruck's home record at 2.35 points per game dwarfs Salzburg's away 1.25
The market has Wacker Innsbruck at 2.39 for a home win, which implies about 42%. My read on the form, the venue records and the run of results puts their chance closer to 62%. That's a gap I can get behind.
My tip: Wacker Innsbruck home win at 2.39.
