Walsall vs Oldham Prediction

Walsall and Oldham meet at the Walsall end on 20 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a story to tell.

Walsall have been stuck in a bit of a rut. Three league draws in a row — 1-1 at Swindon, 1-1 at Fleetwood, 1-1 at Tranmere — and that's before you factor in the 1-6 thrashing by Stevenage in the EFL Trophy at home. Their home record over 20 games tells the tale: 4 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses. They score 0.75 a game at home and fail to score in 12 of those 20. That's a side that's happy to park the bus and nick a point, but it's not exactly thrilling stuff.

Oldham, on the other hand, have been firing. They've won their last two — 4-1 over Cheltenham and 4-2 against Leeds United U21 in the EFL Trophy — and in those two games they've scored 8 and conceded just 3. The 4-1 league win over Cheltenham was a proper statement. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses, which isn't pretty, but they score 1.3 a game on the road and fail to score in only 7 of those 20. That's a big step up from Walsall's home scoring of 0.75.

The head-to-head at Walsall's ground in the last 12 months went to Oldham, 1-2 back in December. The older meetings at this venue — a 2-1 Walsall win in 2022 and a 1-1 draw in 2021 — are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now.

The counter-argument is real, though. All of Oldham's recent form has been at home. They haven't played away in their last five, and that 11-loss away record is a concern. Walsall's home defence has kept clean sheets in 8 of 20 home games, and in the last two games with xG data, Walsall's opponents were expected to score 1.74 a game but only managed 2 actual goals. The 4-1 and 4-2 wins also came against Cheltenham and a U21 side, so the opposition quality is worth a mention.

Key Points:

• Walsall have drawn their last three league games and score just 0.75 a game at home

• Oldham won their last two (8 goals, 3 conceded) and score 1.3 a game away

• Oldham won the recent head-to-head at Walsall's ground, 1-2 in December

• Walsall's home record: 4W 8D 8L over 20 games; Oldham's away: 5W 4D 11L

• Oldham's recent form is all at home, and their away record still carries 11 losses

Verdict: I'm going with the away win at 2.81. The form, the scoring record on the road, and the recent head-to-head at this ground all point the same way. The market prices Oldham at 35.59%, and I'd put them a touch higher based on what I'm seeing. It's not a banker, but the numbers say Oldham are the better side here.