Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Werder Bremen hosting SC Paderborn 07 on 17 October, and let me tell you, this one's got the smell of a home win about it, bra.
Bremen have been cooking at home recently. They beat Augsburg 3–2 on 19 September and dispatched Leipzig 3–1 on 5 September, and their last five games overall have produced 10 goals for and 10 against, with both teams scoring in every single one. That's a side that's creating and converting, even if they've drawn their last two (2–2 at Dortmund on 9 October and 1–1 at Köln on 12 September). Over their last 10 games, Bremen are averaging 2.1 goals a game, and that's the kind of output that makes you feel comfortable at home.
Now look at Paderborn. Three losses in their last five, and they failed to score in three of those five. Their most recent game was a 0–2 home loss to Stuttgart on 10 October, and before that they were beaten 0–3 at Dortmund on 12 September. Yes, they got a 3–1 win over Hoffenheim on 20 September and a 1–0 away win at DC United in a friendly on 30 September, but the pattern is clear: this side is struggling to find goals. In their last five, they've managed just 4 goals at 0.8 per game, and in four of those five, at least one team failed to score.
The head-to-head here is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 2–2 friendly at Bremen's ground on 8 August, and the older meetings stretch back to 2014. So I'm not going to lean on that. What I do look at is the matchup table: over 20 home games, Bremen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Paderborn over 20 away games have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.15 conceded. Paderborn's away record looks a touch better, but that stretches back to October 2025. Their recent away form tells a very different story.
The counter-argument is that Paderborn's away record over 20 games is solid, and they've kept 9 clean sheets in those 20. But their last five games show a side that's lost three, scored in only two, and conceded 7. That's not the same team that was keeping clean sheets a year ago. And the one recent meeting between these two was a 2–2 draw in a friendly, which doesn't really tell us much about a competitive Bundesliga fixture.
Key Points:
- Bremen won their last two home games (3–2 vs Augsburg, 3–1 vs Leipzig) and scored 2 per game in their last five
- Paderborn lost 3 of their last 5 and failed to score in 3 of those 5
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (2–2 friendly, 8 August) was a draw
- Paderborn's away record over 20 games is decent (9W 6D 5L) but recent away form is poor
- Bremen's last 5 games all saw both teams score, with 4 of 5 going over 2.5
Verdict: I'm going with the Werder Bremen home win. The football tells me Paderborn are in a poor place, struggling to score, and Bremen are at home and cooking. The market's implied probability sits at 54.35%, but I rate this at around 60% based on the form on the table. That's a comfortable edge for the home side, and I'm happy to back it at 1.84.