Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Werder Bremen at home against SC Paderborn 07 on 17 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Bremen have been solid at home recently. They beat Augsburg 3–2 on 19 September and then put RB Leipzig to the sword 3–1 on 5 September. Both wins at their own ground, both with three goals on the board. They've also drawn 2–2 at Dortmund on 9 October and 1–1 at Köln on 12 September, so they're not dropping points left and right. In fact, they've scored in all five of their last five matches, and both teams have scored in every single one of those five. That's a side that's finding the back of the net and keeping the ball moving.
Now, Paderborn are having a rougher time. They lost 0–2 to Stuttgart at home on 10 October, just seven days before this fixture, and before that they were thrashed 0–3 at Dortmund on 12 September. Three losses in their last five, and they've failed to score in three of those five. Yes, they did pick up a 3–1 win over Hoffenheim at home on 20 September and a 1–0 away win at DC United in a friendly on 30 September, but the overall picture is one of a side that's struggling to find consistency. Their last five has them at 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, with 0.8 goals scored per game and 1.4 conceded.
The head-to-head here is mostly historical. The most recent meeting was a 2–2 friendly at Bremen's ground on 8 August, and the older meetings go back to 2021 and 2022. So there's not a lot of current form to lean on from the H2H. What we do know is that across nine meetings, Bremen have won four, drawn three, and lost two, and seven of those nine have seen over 2.5 goals. The dates reach back 11 years, so the older games dilute any real reading of current form.
Looking at the longer records, Paderborn's away form over their last 20 away games is actually decent – 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses, with 1.15 goals conceded per game. That's better than Bremen's home record of 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses and 1.55 conceded per game. So the numbers say Paderborn aren't the team you'd expect to fold away from home. But the numbers don't tell you that they've just lost 0–2 at home to Stuttgart and 0–3 at Dortmund. Current form is the thing that matters most, and Paderborn are clearly in the dip.
The market has Bremen at 1.84 for the win, which puts them at about 54% in the bookmaker's eyes. I'd put my own estimate a touch higher, around 57%, because the gap in recent form is real. Bremen are scoring, Paderborn aren't, and the home side have won both of their last two home games. Paderborn's away record is respectable over 20 games, but three losses in five and three failures to score in that same stretch tell you they're not in the form to trouble a side that's been hitting 2 goals per game.
Key Points:
- Werder Bremen have won both of their last two home games (3–2 vs Augsburg, 3–1 vs Leipzig) and scored in all five recent matches
- SC Paderborn 07 have lost three of their last five, including 0–2 at home to Stuttgart on 10 October and 0–3 at Dortmund on 12 September
- Paderborn have failed to score in three of their last five matches
- The most recent head-to-head meeting was a 2–2 friendly at Bremen's ground on 8 August; older meetings are historical
- Paderborn's away record over 20 games (9W 6D 5L) is decent, but their current form is poor
My pick: Werder Bremen home win at 1.84.