West Brom vs Birmingham Prediction

Right, so here's the thing about West Brom and Birmingham. The last two times these two have met in competitive fixtures, nobody's won. 0–0 at Birmingham's ground back in February, 1–1 at West Brom's ground in November. Two meetings, two stalemates, and if you're betting on this one, that's the first thing that should be rattling around in your head.

West Brom at home are in decent shape. Over their last 20 home games they've managed 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses, scoring 1.5 a game and conceding 1.15. In the last 10 across all grounds they've won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3, averaging 1.7 points per game. Their most recent outing was a 0–1 loss at Wolves on 20 September, but before that they'd drawn 1–1 with QPR at home and picked up a 1–0 win at Derby. The form is there, even if the last game wasn't pretty.

Birmingham on the road are no soft touch either. Their last 20 away games have produced 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, with 1.7 points per game. That's actually a shade better than West Brom's home record on points. But look at the last 10 across all grounds and the picture shifts: 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, 1.4 points per game. They've been stuck in a bit of a rut, drawing 3 of their last 5, including 2–2 with Middlesbrough and 2–2 with Wolves. They've scored in every one of those last 5, though, so they're not sitting on their hands.

Now, the counter-argument to a West Brom edge is pretty clear. Birmingham's away record is strong on the numbers, and their xG figures over the last 5 games with data show 1.5 per game for and 1.23 against. They're creating chances even when the results don't reflect it. West Brom, by contrast, have gone under 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches, and their most recent game saw them score nothing. The head-to-head is essentially a draw factory in recent times, and Birmingham's record of scoring in every one of their last 5 suggests this won't be a 0–0.

Key Points:

• Both recent head-to-head meetings ended in draws (0–0 and 1–1)

• West Brom's last 5 games all finished under 2.5 goals

• Birmingham have scored in all of their last 5 matches

• West Brom home record: 8W 8D 4L in 20 games

• Birmingham away record: 10W 4D 6L in 20 games

With no available prices I can use for a recommendation on this one, I'm sitting this derby out. The football's interesting, the draw angle is tempting, but without a price on the table there's nothing to grab. No Bet.