West Brom vs Middlesbrough Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. West Brom welcome Middlesbrough to The Hawthorns on Friday night, and on paper, it's a bit of a mismatch. The Baggies are down in 18th with just 31 points, while Boro are flying high in 2nd with 46. But as we all know, football isn't played on paper, especially not at home.

West Brom's form has been, well, a bit naff if we're honest. Three wins, one draw, and six losses from their last ten tells its own story. They've lost to the likes of Leicester, Swansea, and Bristol City recently. But here's the twist – at home, they're a different animal. In their last four at The Hawthorns, they've won three, scoring two or more in each of those victories. They beat QPR 2-1, Sheffield United 2-0, and Swansea 3-2. They're scoring an average of two goals a game on their own patch, but they're also leaking them, conceding 1.25 per home game. Only one clean sheet in their last ten overall tells you they struggle to shut up shop.

Middlesbrough are the form team in the league, but their travels have been a bit rocky. They've lost three of their last five away, including defeats at Derby (1-0) and Bristol City (2-0). They can score on the road – 1.4 per game – but they also concede 1.6. They've had some brilliant results too, mind you, like smashing Hull City 4-1 away. They're a proper Jekyll and Hyde side on their travels.

When these two have met, Boro have had the upper hand historically, winning five of the last nine. But at The Hawthorns, it's been more even – West Brom have won two, drawn one, and lost one. The last meeting back in September saw Boro edge it 2-1.

So, what's the play? The stats scream goals. West Brom's home games are averaging over three goals. Boro's away games are averaging three goals. Both sides have the firepower and the defensive vulnerabilities to contribute to a lively affair. The bookies have Over 2.5 Goals at a nice even 2.00. Given the recent evidence, I fancy the chances of seeing at least three goals are better than the 50% the odds imply.

Key Points:

West Brom are 18th but have won 3 of their last 4 at home, scoring 2+ in each win.

Middlesbrough are 2nd but have lost 3 of their last 5 away games.

West Brom average 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home game.

Middlesbrough average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per away game.

Both teams have scored in 70% of West Brom's last 10 games.

Head-to-head at The Hawthorns is fairly even (2 West Brom wins, 1 draw, 1 Boro win).

In summary, this has the makings of an open game. West Brom will fancy their chances at home against a side that can be got at on the road. Boro have the quality to hurt anyone. I can see both teams scoring, and with the attacking trends, backing Over 2.5 Goals offers the best value on the night.