Preview
Mr SimpleRight then mates, let's talk proper football. West Ham hosting Palace at the London Stadium? More like a hospital for broken home form lately. The Hammers are having a right mare in their own backyard - no wins in their last five at home, shipping 2.4 goals per game. Remember that 0-3 Tottenham pasting last week? Or the 1-5 Chelsea demolition? Proper defensive nightmares.
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace are the draw specialists of the Premier League - unbeaten in ten with seven stalemates! On the road, they're tighter than a drum: just 0.6 goals conceded per away game with clean sheets at Chelsea (0-0) and Liverpool (1-1) this season. That 3-0 win at Aston Villa shows they can turn the screw when needed.
Now the head-to-head makes grim reading for Hammers fans. Palace haven't lost at the London Stadium in four visits, including last January's 0-2 win. Overall, West Ham's home record against these lot reads: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. Ouch.
League table doesn't lie either - Palace sitting pretty in 9th with 6 points, West Ham down in 18th with just 3. But here's the rub: Palace draw 70% of their games, West Ham draw 40% at home. At 3.50 odds, the draw's massively undervalued - bookies price it at 28.6% chance but I reckon it's closer to 35%.
Both teams to score? Unlikely. Palace kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 away, while West Ham blanked in 3 of their last 5 home games. Over 2.5 goals? Tempting given West Ham's leaky defense, but Palace's stinginess (0.6 goals conceded away) says otherwise.
Key Points:
- West Ham: Winless in 5 home games (0W 2D 3L), conceding 2.40/game
- Crystal Palace: Unbeaten in 10 (3W 7D), 60% draws in last 5 away
- H2H: Palace unbeaten in last 4 at West Ham (2W 2D)
- Last meeting: Palace won 0-2 here in January
This screams score draw for me. 1-1 written all over it with that 3.50 price being proper value.