West Ham vs Fulham Prediction

Alright, let's have a proper look at this London derby, shall we? West Ham are having a right old nightmare of a season, sitting 18th with just three wins. Fulham are comfortably mid-table, ten points better off. On paper, you'd fancy the away side, but football's never that simple, is it?

Let's talk form. The Hammers have been all over the gaff. In their last ten, they've only managed two wins – against Burnley and Newcastle – and haven't kept a single clean sheet. Not one! They're shipping nearly two goals a game at home. They did show a bit of fight in draws with Brighton and Manchester United, but getting turned over 3-0 by City and 3-2 by Villa in their last two shows where they're at.

Fulham, on the other hand, are a bit Jekyll and Hyde. They've won five of their last ten, including decent results against Tottenham and Sunderland. They lost a nine-goal thriller to Manchester City and fell to Crystal Palace, but they're scoring goals – 17 in those ten games. Away from home, they're winning 40% of the time and finding the net regularly.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. West Ham have won three of the last four at home against Fulham, including a 3-2 barnburner back in January. But that feels like a lifetime ago given the Hammers' current plight.

So, what's the play here? The bookies have it almost dead even, with Fulham just a hair's breadth favourite at 2.60. I can see why. West Ham are struggling, but they're at home and they do score goals there – 1.6 per game on average. The problem is they let in even more. Fulham score 1.4 on the road and concede 1.6. Do the maths. That points to one thing: goals at both ends.

Neither defence fills you with confidence. West Ham's clean sheet rate is a big, fat zero. Fulham's is better at 30%, but they've only kept one in their last five on the road. With the goal expectancy models pointing towards over three goals, and both teams scoring in 70% of West Ham's and 60% of Fulham's recent games, the smart money is on both nets bulging.

Key Points:

West Ham are in the relegation zone, with no clean sheets in their last ten matches.

Fulham are ten points better off and have won half of their last ten games.

The Hammers score (1.6) but concede more (2.0) at home.

Fulham are solid on the road, winning 40% of their away games.

History favours West Ham at home, but current form heavily favours Fulham.

The data screams goals: Both Teams to Score has landed in 7 of West Ham's last 10 and 6 of Fulham's last 10.

In summary, this has all the makings of a proper, end-to-end London derby. West Ham will be desperate for points, Fulham will fancy their chances. I can't see either keeper having a quiet afternoon. The value, for me, isn't in picking a winner at tight odds, it's in backing both teams to find the net.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes.