Preview
Right, so it's West Ham versus Southampton on 24 October, and I'll be honest — the Hammers look like the ones to get their hands dirty here.
West Ham have been in the bag of late. They won their last two games — a 1-0 at Swansea and a 6-0 at Lincoln — and in those two they scored seven and conceded nothing. Now, I'll grant you the Lincoln one was a bit of a circus with two red cards for the hosts, but the Swansea win was a proper, grinding 1-0 that showed they can get the job done without the fancy stuff. Their last 10 games overall have been 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, and they're scoring at 2.9 a game. That's a lot of goals.
And look at the head-to-head. Back in August, West Ham went to Southampton's ground and put 4 to 1 on the scoreboard. That was a League Cup tie, sure, but it showed the Hammers can handle the Saints and do it with a bit of flair. That's the only meeting within the last 12 months, so it's the most relevant one we've got.
Now, Southampton's away record over 20 games is 13 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses. That's a solid record, no argument there. But their recent form is a bit more modest — a 0-0 at home to Bolton, a 1-0 at Norwich, a 1-0 at Portsmouth. They're getting results, but it's not exactly fireworks. Their last 10 has 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, and they're scoring at 1.8 a game. That's fine, but it's not the same as West Ham's 2.9.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it its due: West Ham's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses. Eight draws! That's a lot of stalemates. Their last home game was a 1-1 with QPR. So the Hammers at home can be a bit of a draw machine, and if Southampton park the bus, it could get tight. The Saints' away defence is also decent — they've conceded 0.95 a game over 20 away outings.
But here's the thing. West Ham's scoring output is up there, the head-to-head says they've got the edge, and their last two games have been clean-sheet wins. Southampton's recent form is solid but not dominant, and the 0-0 to Bolton last week showed they can go blank. I don't think this is a 0-0 or a 1-1. I think the Hammers get the win.
The market has West Ham at 1.72, which prices them at about 58%. I'd put my money on the Hammers winning at around 63%, so there's a little bit of value in that price. Not a screaming value, but enough to back them.
Key Points:
- West Ham won their last two games (1-0, 6-0), scoring 7 and conceding 0
- West Ham beat Southampton 4-1 in the only meeting within the last 12 months (August, League Cup)
- West Ham's last 10: 6W 3D 1L, scoring 2.9 per game
- Southampton's away record is strong (13W 4D 3L in 20) but recent form is low-scoring
- West Ham's home record includes 8 draws in 20 games, so it's not a guaranteed romp
My tip: West Ham home win at 1.72.
