West Ham vs Sunderland Prediction

Alright, let's have a proper look at this one. West Ham, bless 'em, are having a proper nightmare of a season. They're down in 18th, only 17 points from 22 games, and they've been about as solid at the back as a paper umbrella. But hold up – they just went and nicked a 2-1 win away at Tottenham. That's a big result, no two ways about it. Could it be the kick up the backside they needed?

Problem is, their home form is diabolical. No wins in their last five at home, drawing two and losing three. They've shipped goals for fun, conceding 18 in their last ten and keeping a big, fat zero clean sheets. They score a goal a game on average, but at home it's 1.2. So they'll likely get one, but can they stop the other lot?

Enter Sunderland. The Black Cats are sitting pretty in 9th, a world away from the Hammers. They're the draw kings of the Premier League right now – six draws in their last ten, including some proper scalps. They held Manchester City to a 0-0 at home, drew away at Tottenham and Liverpool. They're tough to beat, but they don't win much on the road either – no away wins in their last six. They're tight at the back generally, but concede 1.5 per game on their travels while only scoring 0.5.

Now, the history books love West Ham in this fixture – they've won four of the nine meetings and only lost once. But that one loss? A proper 3-0 tonking on the opening day of this very season. So maybe the tide is turning.

When you put it all together, what do you get? A West Ham side with a glimmer of hope from their Spurs win but a shocking home record, against a Sunderland side that's hard to break down but can't buy an away win. It's got 1-1 written all over it, hasn't it? Both teams to score looks a decent shout too, given West Ham's leaky defence and Sunderland's ability to grab a goal.

Key Points:

West Ham's home form is dire: 0 wins in last 5, conceding nearly 2 per game.

Sunderland are the draw specialists: 6 draws in their last 10 matches.

The Hammers have kept no clean sheets in their last 10 games.

Sunderland haven't won away in their last 6, but have drawn 4 of them.

• The last meeting this season ended in a 3-0 Sunderland victory.

So, where's the value? The bookies have the draw at a tasty 3.25. Given how often these two sides share the points – and how this clash sets up – I reckon that's where the smart money is. It might not set the world alight, but it's the sensible punt.