Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Westchester SC at home to host Forward Madison on 10 October in USL League One, and if I'm being honest, the story here is pretty straightforward: can Forward Madison find the back of the net?
Westchester SC are in a bit of a groove. Three wins from their last five, including a 5–2 hammering of Richmond Kickers at home and a 2–1 win over Alta just seven days ago. At home over 20 games, they've won 10, drawn 3 and lost 7, scoring 2.2 a game. That's a solid home record, and the goals are coming. Four of their last five games have seen both teams score, and four have gone over 2.5. They're not a side that parks the bus and grinds out a 0–0.
Now, Forward Madison. Look at their last five: a 0–0 draw at Fort Wayne, a 0–1 loss at home to Spokane Velocity, a 3–0 win over Alta, a 0–1 loss away at Chattanooga Red Wolves, and a 1–1 draw at home. In three of those five, they didn't score at all. Over their last 10 games, they've failed to score in three, and 7 of those 10 finished under 2.5. Away from home over 20 games, 11 of them have been BTTS no. That's a team struggling to find the net on the road.
The head-to-head is a bit thin. The most recent meeting was two months ago at Forward Madison's ground, where they won 2–0. Before that, the older meetings at Westchester SC's ground went 0–1 and 1–1, both low-scoring affairs. So the history here isn't screaming "goal fest." The dates on those older meetings stretch back 12 to 17 months, so they're more historical record than current form.
The counter-argument? Westchester SC at home are a genuine scoring threat. They've scored in 17 of their last 20 home games, and their recent home output includes a 5–2. If they're firing, even a 2–0 or 3–0 is on the table, which would still be BTTS no. And Forward Madison did score in their 3–0 win over Alta and the 1–1 at Sarasota, so they're not completely toothless.
But the weight of the evidence points to Forward Madison's scoring struggles. Three of their last five games ended without them finding the net, their away record over 20 games shows just 1.0 goals per game, and the head-to-head at this venue has been low-scoring. I think the most likely scenario is Westchester SC finding at least one goal and Forward Madison coming away with nothing on the scoreboard.
Key Points:
- Westchester SC have won 3 of their last 5 and score 2.2 per game at home
- Forward Madison failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Forward Madison's away record: 11 of 20 games were BTTS no
- The most recent H2H meeting was a 2–0 Forward Madison win; older meetings at this venue were low-scoring
- Westchester SC have scored in 17 of their last 20 home games
My pick: both teams not to score.