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Willem II's last four matches have been a nightmare: four defeats, four goals scored, and twelve conceded. The run stretches back to 11 September, when they drew 1–1 at AZ Alkmaar, and since then they have lost to Ajax 1–5 away, Fortuna Sittard 0–1 at home, Utrecht 1–3 away, and Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 away. In their latest 10 games across all venues, Willem II have won just once, drawn twice and lost seven, averaging 0.5 points per game and conceding 2.7 per match.
Cambuur, by contrast, arrive with no defeats in their last five. They drew 2–2 with AZ Alkmaar at home on 18 October, beat PEC Zwolle 1–0 away on 11 October, and before that drew 1–1 at ADO Den Haag, won 3–0 against NEC Nijmegen at home, and drew 2–2 at Telstar. Their latest 10 games show 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 1.4 goals scored per game and 2.4 conceded.
The most recent meeting between these two sides came on 12 December 2025 at Willem II's ground, when Cambuur won 1–0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the only meeting within the last 12 months. The older head-to-head record, spanning back to 2014, shows 10 meetings with 2 Willem II wins, 5 draws and 3 Cambuur wins, but those older fixtures are historical and do not reflect current form.
Looking at the venue records over 20 games each, Willem II at home have recorded 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses (1.55 points per game, 1.35 scored, 1.25 conceded), while Cambuur away have recorded 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses (1.4 points per game, 1.75 scored, 1.85 conceded). Willem II's home numbers look solid, but they cover a period that includes matches well before their current slump. Cambuur's away record shows they score more per game than Willem II do at home, though they also concede more.
The xG data paints a concerning picture for Willem II's defence: across 5 recent games with xG data, they have faced 2.29 expected goals per game, while their own attack has generated just 1.29 per game. Cambuur's xG figures across 7 recent games show 1.16 for and 1.96 against.
The strongest case here favours Cambuur. Their recent form is markedly better, the only recent head-to-head was an away win at this ground, and Willem II's defensive record in the last month is alarming. The counter-argument is that Willem II's home record over 20 games is respectable, and a team that has lost four in a row can sometimes find a bounce-back at home. However, the quality of those defeats — including a 5–1 loss to Ajax and a 3–1 loss to Utrecht — suggests the problem runs deeper than bad luck.
Key Points:
- Willem II have lost their last four matches, scoring 4 and conceding 12 in that span
- Cambuur are unbeaten in their last five (2 wins, 3 draws)
- The only meeting within 12 months was a 1–0 Cambuur away win at Willem II's ground
- Willem II's xG against stands at 2.29 per game over 5 recent matches
- Both teams' latest 10 games show 8 of 10 finishing over 2.5 goals
Verdict: No Bet. While the evidence points toward Cambuur as the stronger side on the day, the probability of any single outcome does not reach the level of confidence required for a recommendation.
