Wolves vs Bournemouth Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Wolves are propping up the Premier League table with just one win all season. Eight points from 23 games tells you everything you need to know – they're in a right old mess. Bournemouth, sitting pretty in 13th with 30 points, should be licking their lips, but football's never that simple, is it?

Wolves' form is, frankly, all over the gaff. They've managed a couple of wins in their last ten, but you have to look at who they were against. They smashed Shrewsbury 6-1 in the cup, which doesn't count for much here, and they beat a struggling West Ham 3-0 at home. That's the key – at Molineux, they've actually been scoring goals, averaging two a game in their last five at home. They've also held Everton and Manchester United to draws on the road, so there's a bit of fight in the old dog yet. But let's be honest, losing 4-1 at home to United and 2-0 to Brentford shows the soft underbelly is still there.

Now, Bournemouth. What a funny old side they are. Two wins in ten doesn't sound great, but blimey, look at those wins: 3-2 against Liverpool and 3-2 against Tottenham. They are the king of the draw, with six in that same period, including a bonkers 4-4 at Old Trafford. The pattern is clear – they score goals (nearly two a game on average) but they can't keep 'em out, conceding over two a game. On their travels, it's even worse: they've not won away in five, but they're still banging in two goals a game while shipping a whopping 2.6. They are the definition of 'you score, we'll score'.

Head-to-head? Bournemouth have had the upper hand lately, winning four of the last nine. More importantly, they've won three of their last four trips to Molineux, including a 1-0 win back in August. They seem to like playing here.

So, what's the story for Saturday? Wolves are desperate and can score at home. Bournemouth are capable of beating anyone on their day but are as solid as a chocolate teapot at the back. The stats scream one thing: goals. Bournemouth have seen both teams score in a staggering 9 of their last 10 matches. Wolves have seen it in 6 of their last 10. When you combine Wolves' home attack (2.0 goals per game) with Bournemouth's leaky away defence (2.6 conceded per game), and Bournemouth's potent away attack (2.0 goals per game) against a Wolves defence that's conceded in most home games, it's hard to see anything but both nets bulging.

The bookies have the away win as favourite at 2.15, but Bournemouth haven't won away in ages. The draw at 3.60 is tempting given their form, but the real value, the simple maths, points to one market.

Key Points:

Wolves are bottom but score 2 goals per game at home.

Bournemouth are draw specialists, with 6 draws in their last 10.

Bournemouth's games are goal-fests: BTTS in 90% of their last 10.

Head-to-head favours Bournemouth, especially at Molineux.

• Both defences are vulnerable; both attacks are capable.

The Simple Tip: All the numbers point to goals at both ends. The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at 1.62, which looks like decent value given the near-certainty of the scenario. I'm not convinced by either side to win, but I'm very convinced we'll see goals. Get on it.