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Match preview
EnglandChampionship
Match preview
EnglandChampionship
There's something lovely about a side that's quietly knocking on the door while the market has them as the long shot. Portsmouth have won their last two matches — a 1–0 at Norwich on 17 October and a 3–2 at home against Sheffield United on 14 October — and they've scored four goals while conceding just two across that run. That's 1.6 points per game over their last five, and it's the kind of momentum that deserves a second look.
Wolves, by contrast, have dropped three of their last five. The 1–3 home defeat to Bolton on 13 October and the 0–1 loss at Middlesbrough on 10 October have left them with just 1.2 points per game in that stretch. Their most recent win was the 2–1 at Burnley on 16 October, which at least shows they can still find a way forward.
There's no head-to-head history between these two clubs on record, so we have to lean on the venue numbers and recent form. Wolves' home record over 20 games is solid: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, with 1.7 goals scored per game and 1.25 conceded. Portsmouth's away record over 20 games is a step below: 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses, with 1.15 scored per game and 1.6 conceded. The xG numbers tell a similar story — Wolves have generated 1.89 expected goals per game in their last five matches with data, while Portsmouth have produced 1.43 per game over their last six.
But here's the thing that keeps me smiling: the market has Wolves at 65.36% to win, and that feels a touch rich given they've lost three of their last five. Portsmouth at 5.55 carries an implied probability of 18.02%, and that doesn't fully account for a side that's won its last two and is scoring with confidence. The small edge is there, and for a tipster who's always rooting for the little dogs, that's enough to get excited.
Key Points:
My pick: away win.
