Worthing vs Solihull Moors Prediction

Value Vinny here. The bookies have Worthing at 1.82 to take this one at home, and I think they've got it slightly wrong.

Worthing arrive on the back of four wins and a draw in their last five matches, and the numbers at their home ground tell a story the market seems to be underpricing. In 20 home games, Worthing have won 13, drawn 4 and lost just 3, averaging 2.15 points per game. They score 1.95 per game at home and concede only 0.85, keeping a clean sheet in 9 of those 20 matches. Their last two home results — a 2–1 win over FC Halifax Town on 26 September and a 1–0 victory over AFC Hornchurch on 15 September — show a side that is compact, clinical and hard to break down. Across all venues in their last ten games, Worthing have picked up 1.6 points per game, scoring 1.7 per match while conceding 1.4. In the last five, they've scored 9 and conceded just 4. That's a side in genuine rhythm.

Now look at what's coming to face them. Solihull Moors have won just two of their last five matches and lost three, conceding 12 goals in that span — 2.4 per game. Their last two home results were a 2–1 win over Newcastle United U21 in the National League Cup on 6 October and a 0–2 defeat to FC Halifax Town on 3 October. In their last ten games across all grounds, they've managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, averaging 1.0 points per game and conceding 2.1 per match. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses at 1.3 points per game. They score 1.65 per game away but concede 1.6, and they've failed to score in 4 of those 20 outings. That's a side that struggles to find consistency on the road, and the recent form makes it worse.

The counter-argument is that Solihull Moors are not without quality. They beat Woking 4–2 on 29 September and took Newcastle United U21 2–1 in the National League Cup on 6 October. Their away record does include 6 wins in 20 games, and they've scored in 16 of those 20. There's no head-to-head history between these two sides, so there's no precedent to lean on. The 4–2 win at Woking showed they can score when the game opens up, and their away BTTS record (14 of 20 yes) suggests they tend to find the net even in defeat.

But the weight of evidence points firmly to Worthing. The form gap is stark: 4 wins and a draw versus 2 wins and 3 losses in the last five. The home record versus the away record tells the same story. The goal difference in the last five — Worthing at plus 5, Solihull Moors at minus 5 — is the kind of split that should move the market.

Key Points:

• Worthing are unbeaten in their last five matches (4W 1D) and have won 13 of their last 20 home games

• Solihull Moors have lost 6 of their last 10 and conceded 2.1 per game in that span

• Solihull Moors' away record is 6W 8D 6L in 20 games, with 4 failures to score

• No head-to-head meetings on record between these two sides

• Worthing's last five matches saw them score 9 and concede 4; Solihull Moors scored 7 and conceded 12

The market prices Worthing's win at 1.82, implying a 54.95% chance. My read of the form, the home record and the away struggles puts the true probability closer to 60%. That's a genuine edge, and it's the kind of mispricing I live for. Verdict: Worthing home win.