Worthing vs Solihull Moors Prediction

Right, so we've got Worthing at home in the afternoon, and if you've been following the National League, the form book is telling a pretty clear story. Worthing have gone four wins and a draw in their last five — no defeats, not even a sniff of one. They beat Gateshead 2–1 on the road, held Yeovil to a 1–1, then came home and dispatched FC Halifax Town 2–1 (with Halifax down to ten men after a red card in the 77th), before knocking Hartlepool for three away and keeping Hornchurch scoreless at home. That's nine goals scored, four conceded, and not a single loss. The man in the box office would be proud.

Now look at the other end of the table — well, not the table, but the other end of this fixture. Solihull Moors have won two and lost three in their last five, and the goals column is a bit of a horror show. They conceded 12 in those five games — that's 2.4 a game. They lost 0–2 at home to FC Halifax Town, lost 0–3 to Boreham Wood at home, and lost 1–4 at Yeovil. Yes, they did pick up a 2–1 win over Newcastle United U21 in the Cup on 6 October, and they did score four at Woking, but the pattern across the last ten is three wins, one draw, six losses. That's not a team in the thick of it.

The home-and-away numbers make it even starker. Over 20 home games, Worthing have won 13, drawn 4 and lost 3, averaging 2.15 points per game and scoring 1.95 a match while conceding just 0.85. They've kept 9 clean sheets in those 20. Solihull Moors on the road? Six wins, eight draws, six losses in 20 away games, 1.3 points per game, 1.65 scored and 1.6 conceded. That's a gulf in the numbers, and it's not close.

The counter-argument, if you want one, is that Solihull Moors do score on the road — 14 of their last 20 away games have seen both teams find the net — and they've shown they can turn up with a big scoreline, like that 4–2 at Woking. There's also no head-to-head on record, so we can't say one side has historically dominated the other. And Worthing's last five includes a draw, so they're not invincible. But the weight of the evidence — the form, the home record, the defensive solidity — all points one way.

The market has Worthing at 1.82 to win, which implies about 55% chance. Given the form contrast and the home numbers, I'd put Worthing's actual chance closer to 62%. That's a bit of value in the corner.

Key Points:

• Worthing are unbeaten in their last five (4W 1D), scoring 9 and conceding 4

• Worthing's home record: 13W 4D 3L in 20, averaging 1.95 goals and 0.85 conceded per game

• Solihull Moors' away record: 6W 8D 6L in 20, averaging 1.65 scored and 1.6 conceded per game

• Solihull Moors have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 12 goals in that span

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

My pick: home win for Worthing at 1.82.