Worthing vs Solihull Moors Prediction

The Big O here, and I'm telling you, this one's got the smell of goals all over it. Worthing at home are in absolute song — 13 wins from 20 home games, scoring 1.95 per game while conceding just 0.85. That's a side that opens up the scoreboard and keeps the ball in the back of the net. Their last five matches have been four wins and a draw, with 9 goals scored and only 4 conceded. They won 2-1 at Gateshead on 3 October and before that hammered Hartlepool 3-1 on the road on 19 September. The home form is the real story: 11 of those 20 home games have gone over 2.5 goals, and in their last 10 across all venues, 7 of 10 have crossed the line.

Now look at the visitors. Solihull Moors on the road are a different proposition — 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses from 20 away games, and they're leaking goals at 1.6 per game. In their last five matches, they've conceded 12 goals at a rate of 2.4 per game. That's not a defence; that's a sieve. They lost 0-3 to Boreham Wood at home on 26 September and 1-4 to Yeovil Town on the road on 18 September, and while they bounced back with a 4-2 win at Woking on 29 September, the pattern is clear: this team is involved in goals. Their away record shows 11 of 20 games over 2.5, and in the last 10, 7 of 10 have been over.

The counter-argument? Well, both teams' venue records do show 9 of 20 games under 2.5, so it's not a one-way street. Worthing's home defence is solid at 0.85 conceded per game, and Solihull Moors have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 away games. There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we can't lean on history. And Solihull Moors have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, which could keep the total down. But I'll be honest — when a team is conceding 2.4 per game and the home side is scoring nearly two per game, the under 2.5 argument gets thin fast.

Key Points:

• Worthing: 13W 4D 3L from 20 home games, 1.95 scored per game, 11/20 over 2.5

• Solihull Moors: 2.4 goals conceded per game in last 5, 11/20 away games over 2.5

• Both teams: 7/10 over 2.5 in their last 10 matches

• No head-to-head meetings on record

• Solihull Moors: 2W 3L in last 5, conceding 12 goals in that span

The Big O's verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.44. When the home side is scoring nearly two per game and the visitors are leaking two and a quarter, you don't need a crystal ball. This is where the goals come, folks.