Wrexham vs Bristol City Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash down at Wrexham. The Dragons might be sitting in 14th, but don't let that fool you - they're only four points behind Bristol City in 4th, which tells you everything about how tight this league is this season.

Wrexham have been proper solid at home this season, winning 60% of their games on their own patch. They've had some cracking results too - that 3-2 win against league leaders Coventry was a proper statement, and they held Middlesbrough (who're second) to a 1-1 draw. Their defensive record's been tidy too, keeping four clean sheets in their last ten games.

Bristol City, despite being higher up the table, have been a bit hit and miss lately. Sure, they just put three past Swansea, but remember they got absolutely hammered 5-1 by Stoke City in their last away game. Their away form is what really worries me - only winning 25% of their travels and leaking 1.5 goals per game on the road. That's not the form of a team pushing for the top six, is it?

When you dig into the numbers, Wrexham at home average 1.40 goals scored and only concede 1.00. Bristol City away? They're only managing 0.75 goals scored while letting in 1.50. The home advantage looks massive here.

Both teams have been similar in terms of both teams scoring (50% each), but with Wrexham's decent home defense and Bristol City's struggles away from home, I'm not expecting a goal fest.

The bookies have Wrexham at 2.40 for the win, which looks decent value to me. They're tough to beat at home, and Bristol City's away form is proper shaky. The goal expectancy suggests around 2.3 goals in the game, which points towards a narrow home win or maybe a draw.

Given how Wrexham have performed against the top teams at home and Bristol City's defensive issues on the road, I'm siding with the Dragons here.