Wrexham vs Norwich Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Wrexham, sitting pretty in 9th with 40 points, welcome Norwich who are down in 22nd with just 24. On paper, it's a mismatch, but as we know, football isn't played on paper, is it?

Wrexham have been a right handful at home lately. In their last five at their place, they've been involved in some proper thrillers: a 5-3 win over Sheffield Utd, a 2-1 victory against Preston, a 2-2 draw with Watford, a 3-3 FA Cup cracker with Nottingham Forest, and a 1-1 draw with Blackburn. That's an average of 2.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home game. They don't do boring, do they? Their overall form is solid too, with four wins and four draws from their last ten.

Norwich, bless 'em, are having a tough old season, but they've shown a bit of fight on their travels recently. They nicked a 2-1 win at QPR, held Preston and Sheffield Utd to 1-1 draws, and only lost 3-2 at Watford. They're scoring 1.5 goals per away game but letting in the same amount. They're not easy to beat on the road, but they're not exactly shutting up shop either.

The only time these two met this season, back in September, it was a belter: Wrexham came out on top 3-2. That tells you everything you need to know about what to expect here – goals.

Now, let's talk numbers, because that's where the value is. The bookies have Over 2.5 Goals priced at 1.91. Given Wrexham's home games are practically a guarantee for goals – four of their last five have gone over that line – and Norwich's recent away games have seen plenty of action too, I reckon the chance of this hitting is way better than the 52% the odds suggest. I'd put it closer to 65%. That's what we call value, my friends.

Norwich will be desperate for points to climb out of the drop zone, and Wrexham will be eyeing those playoff spots. That usually means both teams go for it, and with defences that have been known to have a wobble, the net should be bulging.

Key Points:

Wrexham average 2.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home game.

Four of Wrexham's last five home matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals.

Norwich score and concede 1.5 goals per away game on average.

The previous meeting this season finished 3-2 to Wrexham.

• Both teams have scored in 80% of Wrexham's last 10 games and 70% of Norwich's.

In summary, this has all the makings of a proper, end-to-end game. Wrexham are strong at home and love to attack, while Norwich are scrapping for their lives and can find the net. I can't see this being a tight, cagey affair. The smart money, in my book, is on there being at least three goals.