Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Wrexham at home to West Brom on 13 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a bit of a one-sided flavour to it.
Let's start with the visitors. West Brom have lost their last two — 0-1 at home to Birmingham on 10 October and 0-1 at Wolves on 20 September — and in those two games they've managed exactly zero goals. That's not a great look for a side who've got to travel to Wrexham's ground. Their last five overall is 2W 1D 2L, sure, but the last two have been quiet, scoreless defeats. And if you look at their last five in detail, every single one of those games finished under 2.5 goals. They're not scoring, they're not creating, and they're losing.
Now Wrexham at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 8, drawn 6 and lost 6, scoring 1.65 a game and conceding 1.6. That's a solid home record. Three weeks ago they beat Southampton 2-1 at home, and before that they drew 1-1 with Burnley. Yes, there's that 6-0 loss at West Ham on 11 September to point to, but that was on the road, and it's not the picture you get from their home numbers.
The head-to-head is thin — just two meetings in the last 14 months. The most recent, back in April at West Brom's ground, was a 2-2 draw. Before that, in August 2025 at Wrexham's ground, West Brom won 3-2. So the one time these two met at this venue, West Brom got the win, but that's over a year ago and it's historical record, not current form. The recent meeting was a draw, and with only one meeting in the last 12 months (at West Brom's ground), there's not a lot to hang a trend on.
The matchup table tells the story pretty clearly. Wrexham at home score 1.65 per game; West Brom away score 1.4. Wrexham concede 1.6 at home; West Brom concede 1.15 away. Wrexham have failed to score in just 2 of 20 home games; West Brom have failed to score in 4 of 20 away. On the numbers, the home side carry the edge.
The counter-argument? Wrexham's last five is 1W 3D 1L, and they've failed to score in two of those five. The 6-0 hammering at West Ham is a big blemish, and it's only four weeks ago. West Brom's away record over 20 games is actually respectable — 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses — so they're not a side that crumbles on the road. And the xG numbers show West Brom have been creating 1.09 per game in their last six with data, which isn't nothing.
But here's the thing: West Brom are on a two-game losing run, they've scored zero in those two, and they're going to a ground where Wrexham score 1.65 a game. The market has Wrexham at 2.34, which prices them at about 43%. I'd put Wrexham's chance of winning this one at around 48%, which sits a bit above what the bookies are saying. That's a small but real edge, and it's the kind of value I like to find.
Key Points:
- West Brom have lost their last two and scored zero goals in those games
- Wrexham's home record: 8 wins in 20, scoring 1.65 per game
- West Brom's last five all finished under 2.5 goals
- The only recent H2H meeting (April 2026) was a 2-2 draw
- Wrexham's home scoring edge (1.65) vs West Brom's away scoring (1.4) is the key number
My pick: Wrexham home win at 2.34.