WSG Wattens vs Ried Prediction

There's a lovely little underdog story brewing here, and it's one I can't resist. WSG Wattens host Ried on 10 October in the Bundesliga, and the market has Ried as the slight favourite at 2.52. But when you dig into the numbers, the little dog at home is the one I'd rather back.

The case for WSG Wattens starts with Ried's away record, which is frankly grim. Over their last 20 away games, Ried have won just 3, drawn 4 and lost 13. That's 13 defeats in 20 trips to hostile grounds, and they've conceded 2.05 goals per game on the road. Compare that with WSG Wattens at home: 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses in 20 home games, conceding just 1.2 per game and keeping 7 clean sheets. The home side are simply a different animal in front of their own fans.

The head-to-head at this venue tells a similar story. In the two recent meetings at WSG Wattens's ground, the hosts have won once (1–0 on 25 April) and drawn once (1–1 on 22 February). Ried have not won here in the last 12 months. And in the broader recent head-to-head, the scores have been tight: 1–0, 2–1, 1–1. This is a cagey fixture, and the home side have the edge in those tight contests.

WSG Wattens's recent form is encouraging too. They've won 3 of their last 5, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 5. That 6–0 away win at SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1 October and the 4–0 cup win at Leithaprodersdorf on 5 September show they can score in bunches, while the 1–0 win at Austria Vienna on 2 September showed they can win tight games. Their 2.6 goals per game and 1.0 conceded per game in the last 5 are solid numbers.

Now, the counter-argument. Ried are not without their own form. They've won 2 and drawn 2 in their last 5, and they've scored in every single one of those games. The 4–1 win over Wolfsberger AC on 20 September and the 1–1 draw with Red Bull Salzburg on 11 September show they can compete with quality opposition. Their 3 goals per game in the last 5 is a healthy output, and the market's 39.68% price on an Ried win reflects that they are not a team to dismiss.

But here's the thing: all of Ried's recent good results have come at home or in the cup. Their away record is the elephant in the room. Thirteen losses in 20 away games is not a number you can ignore, and it's the single most telling figure in this fixture.

Key Points:

• Ried have lost 13 of their last 20 away games, conceding 2.05 per game on the road

• WSG Wattens at home: 6W 9D 5L in 20 games, 7 clean sheets, 1.2 conceded per game

• Head-to-head at WSG Wattens's ground: 1 win and 1 draw for the hosts in the last 12 months

• WSG Wattens have scored 13 and conceded 5 in their last 5 matches

• Ried have scored in all 5 of their recent games but their away record remains poor

My verdict: WSG Wattens home win at 2.69. The little dog at home has the numbers on his side, and I'm happy to back him.